Football · Brazil Serie A · 06/11, 01:30

Prediction: Cruzeiro vs EC Bahia

Team pages: Cruzeiro · EC Bahia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.38Total

Cruzeiro2.1

EC Bahia1.28

1X2

55% 24% 21%

Cruzeiro Draw EC Bahia

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Cruzeiro 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLWWLWWW

EC Bahia 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWLLWLDW

Head-to-head

Cruzeiro 4–1–1 EC Bahia (6 last)

EC Bahia1-2Cruzeiro
EC Bahia1-2Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro3-0EC Bahia
Cruzeiro1-1EC Bahia
EC Bahia4-1Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro3-0EC Bahia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cruzeiro 1555 · EC Bahia 1521

	Cruzeiro	Draw	EC Bahia
Our model	55%	23%	22%
Market	54%	25%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.38 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Cruzeiro: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cruzeiro	EC Bahia
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.4	1.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.1	1.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.9	3.2 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	4.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.75

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.73▲	Bet365 1.73
X	3.80 → 3.75▼	Pinn 4.20 ★
2	4.75 → 4.50▼	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.8% Pinnacle margin 4.7%

Time*	1	X	2
01:35 +28’	1.67	3.80	4.75
09:19 +4’	1.73▲	3.75▼	4.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:34 +29’	1.68	4.29	4.56
10:36 +39’	1.72▲	4.20▼	4.36▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cruzeiro 4–1–1 EC Bahia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Brazil Serie A	EC Bahia	1-2 HT 1-1	Cruzeiro
16/09/25 Brazil Serie A	EC Bahia	1-2 HT 0-0	Cruzeiro
18/04/25 Brazil Serie A	Cruzeiro	3-0 HT 1-0	EC Bahia
19/10/24 Brazil Serie A	Cruzeiro	1-1 HT 0-0	EC Bahia
23/06/24 Brazil Serie A	EC Bahia	4-1 HT 1-1	Cruzeiro
26/10/23 Brazil Serie A	Cruzeiro	3-0 HT 1-0	EC Bahia

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	33	22	7	4	68	28	73
2	Palmeiras	33	20	10	3	56	22	70
3	Cruzeiro	33	17	6	10	52	46	57
4	Fluminense	33	15	9	9	52	42	54
5	Athletico Paranaense	33	15	9	9	50	40	54
6	EC Bahia	33	14	11	8	48	42	53
7	Atletico Mineiro	33	14	8	11	44	39	50
8	Santos	33	12	11	10	49	47	47
9	Bragantino	33	12	8	13	42	38	44
10	Sao Paulo	33	12	7	14	39	39	43
11	Coritiba	33	11	9	13	40	50	42
12	Botafogo	33	10	9	14	45	53	39
13	Vasco da Gama	32	10	8	14	40	49	38
14	Vitoria	33	10	8	15	35	48	38
15	Gremio	33	9	10	14	37	44	37
16	Mirassol	33	9	10	14	37	47	37
17	Corinthians	33	9	9	15	36	42	36
18	Internacional	33	8	11	14	37	42	35
19	Remo	33	6	11	16	36	51	29
20	Chapecoense	32	4	9	19	32	66	21

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cruzeiro	EC Bahia
Remo	1-0 W	2-1 W
Bragantino	2-4 L	3-2 W
Sao Paulo	2-0 W	3-2 W
Vitoria	3-1 W	2-0 W
Santos	1-2 L	1-1 D
Athletico Paranaense	3-1 W	1-2 L
Flamengo	2-1 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Cruzeiro (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cruzeiro

WLWLWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
24/10	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	7	3	W
18/10	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-2	4-2	8	6	W
13/10	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	1-3	2-4	6	4	L
08/10	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-0	8	3	W
20/09	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-1	3-1	2	3	W
13/09	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-2	3	5	L
06/09	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-1	7	4	W
30/08	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-3	3	3	L
23/08	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	3	4	W

EC Bahia

WWWWLLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	2-2	3-2	7	5	W
25/10	Santos Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	8	5	D
18/10	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-3	4	6	L
12/10	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
09/10	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
21/09	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
15/09	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	7	3	W
05/09	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	2-2	3-2	8	3	W
31/08	Internacional Brazil Serie A	3-1	3-2	3	6	W
23/08	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-0	7	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cruzeiro vs EC Bahia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cruzeiro win (55%). Probabilities: Cruzeiro 55%, draw 24%, EC Bahia 21%.

How many goals are expected in Cruzeiro vs EC Bahia?

The model expects 3.38 goals (Cruzeiro 2.1 · EC Bahia 1.28), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs EC Bahia?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.