Football · Brazil Serie A · 05/11, 01:30
Prediction: Sao Paulo vs Corinthians
Team pages: Sao Paulo · Corinthians
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.58Total
Sao Paulo1.51
Corinthians1.08
1X2
Sao Paulo
Draw
Corinthians
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Sao Paulo
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Corinthians
0-1-9 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sao Paulo
3–1–2
Corinthians
(6 last)
- Corinthians3-2Sao Paulo
- Corinthians1-1Sao Paulo
- Corinthians3-1Sao Paulo
- Sao Paulo2-0Corinthians
- Sao Paulo3-1Corinthians
- Sao Paulo3-1Corinthians
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sao Paulo 1484 · Corinthians 1400
| Sao Paulo | Draw | Corinthians | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 28% | 26% |
| Market | 45% | 30% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sao Paulo (rating 1484 vs 1400).
- H2H favours Sao Paulo: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 15.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sao Paulo | Corinthians | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.2 | 1 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.7 | 0.1 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 0/20/80% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.9 / 8.3 | 2.3 / 6.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.1 | 5.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sao Paulo 3–1–2 Corinthians
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 Brazil Serie A | Corinthians | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Sao Paulo |
| 18/01/26 Brazil Campeonato Paulista | Corinthians | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Sao Paulo |
| 20/11/25 Brazil Serie A | Corinthians | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Sao Paulo |
| 20/07/25 Brazil Serie A | Sao Paulo | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Corinthians |
| 26/01/25 Brazil Campeonato Paulista | Sao Paulo | 3-1 HT 0-0 | Corinthians |
| 29/09/24 Brazil Serie A | Sao Paulo | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Corinthians |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 33 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 68 | 28 | 73 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 33 | 20 | 10 | 3 | 56 | 22 | 70 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 52 | 46 | 57 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 33 | 15 | 9 | 9 | 52 | 42 | 54 |
| 5 | Athletico Paranaense | 33 | 15 | 9 | 9 | 50 | 40 | 54 |
| 6 | EC Bahia | 33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 48 | 42 | 53 |
| 7 | Atletico Mineiro | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 44 | 39 | 50 |
| 8 | Santos | 33 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 49 | 47 | 47 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 33 | 12 | 8 | 13 | 42 | 38 | 44 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 39 | 39 | 43 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 40 | 50 | 42 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 45 | 53 | 39 |
| 13 | Vasco da Gama | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 40 | 49 | 38 |
| 14 | Vitoria | 33 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 48 | 38 |
| 15 | Gremio | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 37 | 44 | 37 |
| 16 | Mirassol | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 37 | 47 | 37 |
| 17 | Corinthians | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 36 | 42 | 36 |
| 18 | Internacional | 33 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 37 | 42 | 35 |
| 19 | Remo | 33 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 36 | 51 | 29 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 32 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 32 | 66 | 21 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sao Paulo | Corinthians |
|---|---|---|
| Vasco da Gama | 1-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Vitoria | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Cruzeiro | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Santos | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Internacional | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Palmeiras | 0-2 L | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 3 L | 0 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Sao Paulo (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sao Paulo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
2-2 | 2-3 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 24/10 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 18/10 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 11/10 | Vitoria Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 08/10 | Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 03/10 | Santos Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 14 | 4 | L |
| 20/09 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 12/09 | Palmeiras Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 05/09 | Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 16 | 2 | W |
| 30/08 | Bragantino Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
Corinthians
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 20/10 | Vitoria Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 11/10 | Palmeiras Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 08/10 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 12 | 9 | L |
| 20/09 | Fluminense Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-3 | 11 | 8 | L |
| 13/09 | Flamengo Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 6 | L |
| 07/09 | Chapecoense Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 30/08 | Santos Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 24/08 | Coritiba Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 14 | 4 | L |
| 17/08 | Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sao Paulo vs Corinthians?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sao Paulo win (46%). Probabilities: Sao Paulo 46%, draw 29%, Corinthians 25%.
How many goals are expected in Sao Paulo vs Corinthians?
The model expects 2.58 goals (Sao Paulo 1.51 · Corinthians 1.08), with a 57% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Corinthians?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.