Football · Brazil Serie A · 07/11, 00:00

Prediction: Vitoria vs Fluminense

Team pages: Vitoria · Fluminense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

Vitoria1.33

Fluminense1.39

1X2

34% 29% 37%

Vitoria Draw Fluminense

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Vitoria 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLWDLWLDDL

Fluminense 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WDWLWWLLLW

Head-to-head

Vitoria 2–3–1 Fluminense (6 last)

Fluminense2-2Vitoria
Vitoria0-1Fluminense
Fluminense1-1Vitoria
Vitoria2-1Fluminense
Fluminense0-1Vitoria
Fluminense0-0Vitoria

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vitoria 1448 · Fluminense 1513

	Vitoria	Draw	Fluminense
Our model	35%	28%	37%
Market	34%	29%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fluminense (rating 1448 vs 1513).
H2H favours Vitoria: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vitoria	Fluminense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	1.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.5	1.9 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0	4.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.20

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.05

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 08:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 2.75▼	Pinn 2.76
X	3.25 → 3.20▼	Pinn 3.30
2	2.30 → 2.55▲	Pinn 2.63 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.8% Pinnacle margin 4.6%

Time*	1	X	2
01:13 +54’	3.10	3.25	2.30
02:24 +1’	3.00▼	3.25	2.40▲
08:18 +4’	2.75▼	3.20▼	2.55▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:13 +44’	2.63	3.37	2.64
21:59 +36’	2.76▲	3.30▼	2.63▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vitoria 2–3–1 Fluminense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Brazil Serie A	Fluminense	2-2 HT 1-0	Vitoria
20/09/25 Brazil Serie A	Vitoria	0-1 HT 0-1	Fluminense
20/04/25 Brazil Serie A	Fluminense	1-1 HT 1-0	Vitoria
26/10/24 Brazil Serie A	Vitoria	2-1 HT 1-0	Fluminense
28/06/24 Brazil Serie A	Fluminense	0-1 HT 0-0	Vitoria
07/09/18 Brazil Serie A	Fluminense	0-0 HT 0-0	Vitoria

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	33	22	7	4	68	28	73
2	Palmeiras	33	20	10	3	56	22	70
3	Cruzeiro	33	17	6	10	52	46	57
4	Fluminense	33	15	9	9	52	42	54
5	Athletico Paranaense	33	15	9	9	50	40	54
6	EC Bahia	33	14	11	8	48	42	53
7	Atletico Mineiro	33	14	8	11	44	39	50
8	Santos	33	12	11	10	49	47	47
9	Bragantino	33	12	8	13	42	38	44
10	Sao Paulo	33	12	7	14	39	39	43
11	Coritiba	33	11	9	13	40	50	42
12	Botafogo	33	10	9	14	45	53	39
13	Vasco da Gama	32	10	8	14	40	49	38
14	Vitoria	33	10	8	15	35	48	38
15	Gremio	33	9	10	14	37	44	37
16	Mirassol	33	9	10	14	37	47	37
17	Corinthians	33	9	9	15	36	42	36
18	Internacional	33	8	11	14	37	42	35
19	Remo	33	6	11	16	36	51	29
20	Chapecoense	32	4	9	19	32	66	21

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vitoria	Fluminense
Coritiba	0-2 L	4-0 W
Athletico Paranaense	1-1 D	3-3 D
Corinthians	1-1 D	3-1 W
Chapecoense	4-0 W	1-2 L
Atletico Mineiro	1-2 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vitoria

LLWDLWLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-2	5	2	L
24/10	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
20/10	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	1	1	D
11/10	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-2	2	8	L
08/10	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-0	4-0	3	5	W
20/09	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-3	8	3	L
13/09	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-2	5	10	D
08/09	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
29/08	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
23/08	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-2	7	7	L

Fluminense

WDWLWWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-1	8	4	W
25/10	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
18/10	Santos Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	4	3	L
11/10	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
09/10	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	1-0	4-0	3	1	W
20/09	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-1	1	8	W
12/09	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-3	2	3	L
06/09	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
30/08	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-3	3	4	D
22/08	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	11	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vitoria vs Fluminense?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Fluminense win (37%). Probabilities: Vitoria 34%, draw 29%, Fluminense 37%.

How many goals are expected in Vitoria vs Fluminense?

The model expects 2.72 goals (Vitoria 1.33 · Fluminense 1.39), with a 56% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Fluminense?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.