Football · Georgia Erovnuli Liga · 01/11, 14:00

Prediction: FC Gagra vs FC Rustavi

Team pages: FC Gagra · FC Rustavi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.24Total

FC Gagra0.93

FC Rustavi1.3

1X2

27% 28% 45%

FC Gagra Draw FC Rustavi

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Gagra 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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FC Rustavi 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Gagra 4–1–1 FC Rustavi (6 last)

FC Gagra2-1FC Rustavi
FC Rustavi3-0FC Gagra
FC Gagra1-1FC Rustavi
FC Rustavi1-2FC Gagra
FC Gagra2-0FC Rustavi
FC Rustavi0-1FC Gagra

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Gagra 1467 · FC Rustavi 1511

	FC Gagra	Draw	FC Rustavi
Our model	25%	31%	44%
Market	28%	26%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Rustavi (rating 1467 vs 1511).
H2H favours FC Gagra: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Gagra	FC Rustavi
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.7	1.3 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.6	1.5 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.3	4.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.40

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 04:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.25▼	Pinn 3.30
X	3.50 → 3.40▼	Pinn 3.57
2	1.80 → 1.95▲	Pinn 2.05 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
01:33 +6’	3.60	3.50	1.80
02:23 +43’	3.40▼	3.40▼	1.90▲
03:47 +21’	3.25▼	3.40	1.95▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:12 +54’	3.25	3.51	2.03
12:04 +6’	3.30▲	3.57▲	2.05▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Gagra 4–1–1 FC Rustavi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/10/26 Georgia Cup	FC Gagra	2-1 HT 2-0	FC Rustavi
22/08/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Rustavi	3-0 HT 0-0	FC Gagra
16/05/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Gagra	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Rustavi
15/03/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Rustavi	1-2 HT 1-0	FC Gagra
01/11/21 Georgia First League	FC Gagra	2-0 HT 2-0	FC Rustavi
10/09/21 Georgia First League	FC Rustavi	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Gagra

Standings · Georgia Erovnuli Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dinamo Batumi	31	17	8	6	54	37	59
2	FC Iberia 1999	31	17	5	9	45	33	56
3	Dinamo Tbilisi	31	15	10	6	50	32	55
4	FC Rustavi	31	15	8	8	38	28	53
5	Dila Gori	30	12	4	14	40	37	40
6	Samgurali	31	11	6	14	43	55	39
7	Torpedo Kutaisi	30	9	10	11	48	41	37
8	FC Gagra	31	6	13	12	28	45	31
9	FC Spaeri	31	5	13	13	38	49	28
10	Meshakhte Tkibuli	31	3	11	17	23	50	20

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Gagra	FC Rustavi
FC Spaeri	0-0 D	1-1 D
Dinamo Batumi	1-3 L	0-1 L
Samgurali	0-3 L	1-1 D
Meshakhte Tkibuli	1-1 D	1-0 W
Dinamo Tbilisi	0-4 L	0-2 L
Torpedo Kutaisi	1-1 D	1-0 W
Dila Gori	0-1 L	3-1 W
FC Iberia 1999	2-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Rustavi (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Gagra

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
17/10	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-2	1-3	5	6	L
11/10	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	0-3	7	1	L
19/09	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
14/09	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-3	0-4	4	5	L
10/09	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
05/09	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
31/08	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
22/08	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-3	3	4	L
17/08	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	10	5	D

FC Rustavi

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
18/10	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
10/10	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-0	3-1	4	6	W
21/09	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
14/09	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
09/09	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
04/09	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
30/08	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	8	5	D
22/08	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	3-0	3	4	W
15/08	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	3-0	3-0	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Gagra vs FC Rustavi?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Rustavi win (45%). Probabilities: FC Gagra 27%, draw 28%, FC Rustavi 45%.

How many goals are expected in FC Gagra vs FC Rustavi?

The model expects 2.24 goals (FC Gagra 0.93 · FC Rustavi 1.3), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Gagra vs FC Rustavi?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.