Football · Georgia Erovnuli Liga · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: FC Rustavi vs Samgurali

Team pages: FC Rustavi · Samgurali

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

FC Rustavi1.67

Samgurali0.99

1X2

53% 26% 22%

FC Rustavi Draw Samgurali

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Rustavi 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDLDWLWWLD

Samgurali 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDLLLLWWLD

Head-to-head

FC Rustavi 1–3–2 Samgurali (6 last)

Samgurali1-1FC Rustavi
FC Rustavi1-0Samgurali
Samgurali2-1FC Rustavi
Samgurali2-1FC Rustavi
FC Rustavi1-1Samgurali
Samgurali2-2FC Rustavi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Rustavi 1511 · Samgurali 1474

	FC Rustavi	Draw	Samgurali
Our model	52%	27%	21%
Market	53%	25%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Samgurali: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Rustavi	Samgurali
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1	1.6 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4	1.1 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.60

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.70▼	Bet365 1.70
X	3.50 → 3.60▲	Pinn 3.68
2	3.70 → 4.10▲	Pinn 4.85 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
12:24 +5’	1.80	3.50	3.70
14:26 +14’	1.70▼	3.60▲	4.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:12 +33’	1.66	3.66	4.81
07:58 +19’	1.69▲	3.59▼	4.63▼
14:04 +36’	1.68▼	3.68▲	4.85▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Rustavi 1–3–2 Samgurali

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/08/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Samgurali	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Rustavi
21/05/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Rustavi	1-0 HT 1-0	Samgurali
03/04/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Samgurali	2-1 HT 0-1	FC Rustavi
22/09/20 Georgia First League	Samgurali	2-1 HT 1-1	FC Rustavi
02/03/20 Georgia First League	FC Rustavi	1-1 HT 0-0	Samgurali
12/06/18 Georgia Cup	Samgurali	2-2 HT 1-2	FC Rustavi

Standings · Georgia Erovnuli Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dinamo Batumi	31	17	8	6	54	37	59
2	FC Iberia 1999	31	17	5	9	45	33	56
3	Dinamo Tbilisi	31	15	10	6	50	32	55
4	FC Rustavi	31	15	8	8	38	28	53
5	Torpedo Kutaisi	32	11	10	11	53	44	43
6	Dila Gori	31	12	4	15	41	39	40
7	Samgurali	31	11	6	14	43	55	39
8	FC Gagra	31	6	13	12	28	45	31
9	FC Spaeri	31	5	13	13	38	49	28
10	Meshakhte Tkibuli	32	3	11	18	25	53	20

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Rustavi	Samgurali
FC Gagra	2-2 D	3-0 W
Dinamo Tbilisi	0-2 L	2-3 L
Torpedo Kutaisi	1-0 W	2-3 L
Dila Gori	3-1 W	1-3 L
FC Iberia 1999	0-2 L	1-2 L
Meshakhte Tkibuli	1-0 W	2-0 W
FC Spaeri	1-1 D	0-0 D
Dinamo Batumi	0-1 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Samgurali (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Rustavi

WDLDWLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-1	2-2	5	2	D
23/10	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
18/10	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
10/10	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-0	3-1	4	6	W
21/09	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
14/09	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
09/09	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
04/09	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
30/08	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	8	5	D
22/08	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	3-0	3	4	W

Samgurali

WDLLLLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
24/10	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	0-3	3	0	L
17/10	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
11/10	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	3-0	2	1	W
19/09	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-2	2-3	4	5	L
14/09	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-2	2-3	8	3	L
09/09	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-2	1-3	6	3	L
05/09	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
30/08	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
22/08	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-3	4-3	1	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Rustavi vs Samgurali?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Rustavi win (53%). Probabilities: FC Rustavi 53%, draw 26%, Samgurali 22%.

How many goals are expected in FC Rustavi vs Samgurali?

The model expects 2.67 goals (FC Rustavi 1.67 · Samgurali 0.99), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Rustavi vs Samgurali?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.