Football · Georgia Erovnuli Liga · 09/11, 17:00

Prediction: FC Iberia 1999 vs FC Gagra

Team pages: FC Iberia 1999 · FC Gagra

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

FC Iberia 19991.81

FC Gagra0.85

1X2

60% 24% 17%

FC Iberia 1999 Draw FC Gagra

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Iberia 1999 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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FC Gagra 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Iberia 1999 5–1 FC Gagra (6 last)

FC Gagra2-0FC Iberia 1999
FC Iberia 19991-0FC Gagra
FC Gagra1-2FC Iberia 1999
FC Iberia 19992-1FC Gagra
FC Gagra1-3FC Iberia 1999
FC Iberia 19993-1FC Gagra

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Iberia 1999 1545 · FC Gagra 1438

	FC Iberia 1999	Draw	FC Gagra
Our model	59%	25%	16%
Market	60%	23%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Iberia 1999 (rating 1545 vs 1438).
H2H favours FC Iberia 1999: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Iberia 1999	FC Gagra
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.9	0.7 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.5	2.4 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.3	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.00

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 11 moves · last 16:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.50▲	Bet365 1.50
X	4.20 → 4.00▼	Pinn 4.25
2	6.00 → 5.25▼	Pinn 6.16 ★

See the full journey (11)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
01:07 +22’	1.40	4.20	6.00
23:00 +1’	1.50▲	4.20	5.00▼
01:56 +5’	1.36▼	4.33▲	7.00▲
06:59 +1’	1.44▲	4.20▼	5.75▼
07:56 +4’	1.45▲	4.10▼	5.50▼
10:59 +1’	1.53▲	4.00▼	5.00▼
11:59 +2’	1.53	3.90▼	5.25▲
12:53 +8’	1.50▼	4.00▲	5.25
13:59 +2’	1.53▲	3.90▼	5.25
14:59 +2’	1.45▼	4.10▲	5.75▲
15:54 +6’	1.50▲	4.00▼	5.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:45 +15’	1.41	4.39	6.77
07:41 +19’	1.49▲	4.07▼	5.92▼
08:57 +3’	1.52▲	3.95▼	5.72▼
09:55 +5’	1.49▼	4.05▲	6.07▲
10:56 +4’	1.52▲	3.94▼	5.80▼
13:00 +1’	1.50▼	4.02▲	5.88▲
13:58 +2’	1.53▲	3.91▼	5.65▼
14:52 +9’	1.51▼	3.98▲	5.88▲
15:57 +3’	1.49▼	4.25▲	6.16▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Iberia 1999 5–0–1 FC Gagra

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/08/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Gagra	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Iberia 1999
20/05/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Iberia 1999	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Gagra
03/04/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Gagra	1-2 HT 1-1	FC Iberia 1999
06/12/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Iberia 1999	2-1 HT 1-0	FC Gagra
03/10/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Gagra	1-3 HT 1-2	FC Iberia 1999
29/05/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Iberia 1999	3-1 HT 2-1	FC Gagra

Standings · Georgia Erovnuli Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dinamo Batumi	32	17	8	7	56	40	59
2	Dinamo Tbilisi	32	16	10	6	52	32	58
3	FC Iberia 1999	31	17	5	9	45	33	56
4	FC Rustavi	32	16	8	8	40	28	56
5	Torpedo Kutaisi	32	11	10	11	53	44	43
6	Dila Gori	32	12	4	16	41	41	40
7	Samgurali	32	11	6	15	43	57	39
8	FC Spaeri	32	6	13	13	41	51	31
9	FC Gagra	31	6	13	12	28	45	31
10	Meshakhte Tkibuli	32	3	11	18	25	53	20

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Iberia 1999	FC Gagra
Dinamo Tbilisi	0-0 D	0-4 L
Torpedo Kutaisi	3-2 W	1-1 D
Dila Gori	2-0 W	0-1 L
Meshakhte Tkibuli	2-1 W	1-1 D
FC Rustavi	2-0 W	2-2 D
FC Spaeri	1-0 W	0-0 D
Dinamo Batumi	0-2 L	1-3 L
Samgurali	2-1 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 4 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FC Iberia 1999 (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Iberia 1999

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-0	3	9	D
26/10	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	3-0	3-2	4	1	W
19/10	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	2-0	6	7	W
10/10	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-1	2-1	3	6	W
04/10	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
21/09	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
17/09	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	2-1	4	10	W
13/09	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
09/09	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-2	3	6	L
05/09	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-1	2-1	8	6	W

FC Gagra

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-1	2-2	2	2	D
23/10	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
17/10	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-2	1-3	5	6	L
11/10	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	0-3	7	1	L
19/09	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
14/09	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-3	0-4	4	5	L
10/09	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
05/09	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
31/08	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
22/08	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-3	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Iberia 1999 vs FC Gagra?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Iberia 1999 win (60%). Probabilities: FC Iberia 1999 60%, draw 24%, FC Gagra 17%.

How many goals are expected in FC Iberia 1999 vs FC Gagra?

The model expects 2.65 goals (FC Iberia 1999 1.81 · FC Gagra 0.85), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Iberia 1999 vs FC Gagra?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.