Football · Georgia Erovnuli Liga · 08/11, 16:00

Prediction: Dila Gori vs Dinamo Tbilisi

Team pages: Dila Gori · Dinamo Tbilisi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

Dila Gori0.96

Dinamo Tbilisi1.63

1X2

22% 26% 53%

Dila Gori Draw Dinamo Tbilisi

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Dila Gori 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWWDLWLLLL

Dinamo Tbilisi 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDDWWWLWWD

Head-to-head

Dila Gori 1–3–2 Dinamo Tbilisi (6 last)

Dinamo Tbilisi2-1Dila Gori
Dila Gori0-0Dinamo Tbilisi
Dila Gori0-0Dinamo Tbilisi
Dinamo Tbilisi1-2Dila Gori
Dila Gori2-2Dinamo Tbilisi
Dinamo Tbilisi2-0Dila Gori

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dila Gori 1467 · Dinamo Tbilisi 1558

	Dila Gori	Draw	Dinamo Tbilisi
Our model	21%	27%	52%
Market	22%	25%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dinamo Tbilisi (rating 1467 vs 1558).
H2H favours Dinamo Tbilisi: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dila Gori	Dinamo Tbilisi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.7	1.7 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.9	3.2 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.3	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.10

X3.60

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.85

2 (-0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 14:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 4.10▲	Pinn 4.15
X	3.40 → 3.60▲	Pinn 4.00 ★
2	2.40 → 1.70▼	Pinn 1.72

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:44 +7’	2.45	3.40	2.40
05:13 +3’	3.60▲	3.50▲	1.80▼
14:18 +5’	4.10▲	3.60▲	1.70▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:13	3.39	3.49	1.99
04:25 +51’	3.69▲	3.76▲	1.82▼
12:24 +4’	3.71▲	3.77▲	1.82
14:16 +7’	4.15▲	4.00▲	1.72▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dila Gori 1–3–2 Dinamo Tbilisi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/08/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Dinamo Tbilisi	2-1 HT 1-0	Dila Gori
01/07/26 Georgia Super Cup	Dila Gori	0-0 HT 0-0	Dinamo Tbilisi
20/05/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Dila Gori	0-0 HT 0-0	Dinamo Tbilisi
03/04/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Dinamo Tbilisi	1-2 HT 1-1	Dila Gori
06/12/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Dila Gori	2-2 HT 0-1	Dinamo Tbilisi
03/10/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Dinamo Tbilisi	2-0 HT 1-0	Dila Gori

Standings · Georgia Erovnuli Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dinamo Batumi	32	17	8	7	56	40	59
2	FC Iberia 1999	31	17	5	9	45	33	56
3	FC Rustavi	32	16	8	8	40	28	56
4	Dinamo Tbilisi	31	15	10	6	50	32	55
5	Torpedo Kutaisi	32	11	10	11	53	44	43
6	Dila Gori	31	12	4	15	41	39	40
7	Samgurali	32	11	6	15	43	57	39
8	FC Spaeri	32	6	13	13	41	51	31
9	FC Gagra	31	6	13	12	28	45	31
10	Meshakhte Tkibuli	32	3	11	18	25	53	20

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dila Gori	Dinamo Tbilisi
Torpedo Kutaisi	1-2 L	1-1 D
Meshakhte Tkibuli	1-2 L	0-0 D
FC Iberia 1999	0-2 L	0-0 D
FC Rustavi	1-3 L	2-0 W
FC Spaeri	4-1 W	3-1 W
Dinamo Batumi	2-2 D	0-1 L
Samgurali	3-1 W	3-2 W
FC Gagra	1-0 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Dinamo Tbilisi (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dila Gori

LWWDLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-1	1-2	4	4	L
24/10	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	1-2	4	7	L
19/10	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
10/10	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-2	1-3	1	6	L
21/09	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	4-1	4-1	4	1	W
17/09	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-2	4	10	L
13/09	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-1	2-2	3	5	D
09/09	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-0	3-1	4	3	W
05/09	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
31/08	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	1-2	6	4	L

Dinamo Tbilisi

WDDWWWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-0	6	9	D
23/10	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	2-0	10	4	W
18/10	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	3-1	5	1	W
11/10	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	0-1	8	5	L
04/10	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
19/09	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-2	3-2	2	5	W
14/09	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	3-0	4-0	5	5	W
10/09	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
06/09	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
31/08	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	2-1	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dila Gori vs Dinamo Tbilisi?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Dinamo Tbilisi win (53%). Probabilities: Dila Gori 22%, draw 26%, Dinamo Tbilisi 53%.

How many goals are expected in Dila Gori vs Dinamo Tbilisi?

The model expects 2.59 goals (Dila Gori 0.96 · Dinamo Tbilisi 1.63), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Dila Gori vs Dinamo Tbilisi?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.