Football · Brazil Serie A · 15/11, 00:30

Prediction: Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama

Team pages: Chapecoense · Vasco da Gama

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

Chapecoense0.93

Vasco da Gama1.91

1X2

17% 23% 60%

Chapecoense Draw Vasco da Gama

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Chapecoense 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWLDLLLWLL

Vasco da Gama 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWWDLWLW

Head-to-head

Chapecoense 0–4–2 Vasco da Gama (6 last)

Vasco da Gama1-1Chapecoense
Vasco da Gama0-0Chapecoense
Chapecoense0-0Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama1-1Chapecoense
Chapecoense1-2Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama3-1Chapecoense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chapecoense 1436 · Vasco da Gama 1529

	Chapecoense	Draw	Vasco da Gama
Our model	17%	24%	59%
Market	18%	22%	60%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vasco da Gama (rating 1436 vs 1529).
H2H favours Vasco da Gama: 2-4-0.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chapecoense	Vasco da Gama
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.2	1.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.2	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.2	3.1 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.25

X4.20

21.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.88

2 (-1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.05

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.25 → 5.25	Pinn 5.43 ★
X	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.28
2	1.55 → 1.55	Pinn 1.58

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
19:04 +3’	5.25	4.20	1.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:13 +142’	5.33	4.32	1.59
18:03 +4’	5.23▼	4.28▼	1.60▲
22:00 +5’	5.43▲	4.28	1.58▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chapecoense 0–4–2 Vasco da Gama

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/02/26 Brazil Serie A	Vasco da Gama	1-1 HT 0-0	Chapecoense
31/07/22 Brazil Serie B	Vasco da Gama	0-0 HT 0-0	Chapecoense
23/04/22 Brazil Serie B	Chapecoense	0-0 HT 0-0	Vasco da Gama
08/12/19 Brazil Serie A	Vasco da Gama	1-1 HT 0-0	Chapecoense
15/09/19 Brazil Serie A	Chapecoense	1-2 HT 0-1	Vasco da Gama
27/08/18 Brazil Serie A	Vasco da Gama	3-1 HT 0-0	Chapecoense

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	34	23	7	4	71	29	76
2	Palmeiras	34	21	10	3	62	23	73
3	Cruzeiro	34	18	6	10	55	48	60
4	Fluminense	34	16	9	9	55	42	57
5	Athletico Paranaense	34	15	9	10	51	43	54
6	EC Bahia	34	14	11	9	50	45	53
7	Atletico Mineiro	34	14	8	12	44	40	50
8	Bragantino	34	13	8	13	44	39	47
9	Santos	34	12	11	11	50	49	47
10	Sao Paulo	34	12	8	14	39	39	44
11	Botafogo	34	11	9	14	46	53	42
12	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	40	51	42
13	Vasco da Gama	33	11	8	14	43	50	41
14	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	39	48	40
15	Vitoria	34	10	8	16	35	51	38
16	Internacional	34	9	11	14	38	42	38
17	Corinthians	34	9	10	15	36	42	37
18	Gremio	34	9	10	15	38	47	37
19	Remo	34	6	11	17	37	57	29
20	Chapecoense	33	4	9	20	33	68	21

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chapecoense	Vasco da Gama
Fluminense	2-1 W	0-1 L
Botafogo	0-1 L	2-1 W
Athletico Paranaense	1-4 L	3-1 W
Corinthians	2-1 W	3-2 W
Gremio	1-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Vasco da Gama (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chapecoense

LWLDLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/11	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-2	4	4	L
28/10	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-3	4	0	L
25/10	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	3	3	W
17/10	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
13/10	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-3	1-4	6	3	L
08/10	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-4	6	5	L
19/09	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
12/09	Internacional Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-2	4	8	L
07/09	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
30/08	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-2	1-3	7	4	L

Vasco da Gama

WLWWWDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/11	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-1	3-1	0	5	W
30/10	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	1-2	1-4	6	2	L
24/10	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-2	3	4	W
18/10	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
10/10	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
08/10	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	14	1	W
20/09	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	2-0	5-0	12	3	W
12/09	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	5	6	W
06/09	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
30/08	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-1	11	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Vasco da Gama win (60%). Probabilities: Chapecoense 17%, draw 23%, Vasco da Gama 60%.

How many goals are expected in Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama?

The model expects 2.84 goals (Chapecoense 0.93 · Vasco da Gama 1.91), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.