Football · Georgia Erovnuli Liga · 31/10, 12:00

Prediction: Samgurali vs FC Spaeri

Team pages: Samgurali · FC Spaeri

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.21Total

Samgurali1.74

FC Spaeri1.47

1X2

43% 26% 31%

Samgurali Draw FC Spaeri

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Samgurali 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWDLLLLWWL

FC Spaeri 0-5-5 (W-D-L)

DLLDDLLDLD

Head-to-head

Samgurali 2–1–1 FC Spaeri (4 last)

FC Spaeri3-4Samgurali
FC Spaeri0-1Samgurali
Samgurali0-0FC Spaeri
FC Spaeri4-1Samgurali

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Samgurali 1465 · FC Spaeri 1434

	Samgurali	Draw	FC Spaeri
Our model	43%	25%	32%
Market	43%	26%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.21 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Samgurali: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Samgurali	FC Spaeri
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.2	1.2 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.4	0.7 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 4	2.8 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.50

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 11:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 2.10▲	Pinn 2.32 ★
X	3.75 → 3.50▼	Bet365 3.50
2	3.75 → 2.88▼	Pinn 2.93

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
01:05 +9’	1.73	3.75	3.75
00:25 +12’	1.91▲	3.60▼	3.20▼
11:39	2.10▲	3.50▼	2.88▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +25’	2.09	3.78	2.91
11:30 +9’	2.32▲	3.34▼	2.93▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Samgurali 2–1–1 FC Spaeri

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/08/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Spaeri	3-4 HT 3-1	Samgurali
20/07/26 Europe Friendlies	FC Spaeri	0-1 HT 0-0	Samgurali
17/05/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Samgurali	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Spaeri
16/03/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Spaeri	4-1 HT 1-0	Samgurali

Standings · Georgia Erovnuli Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dinamo Batumi	31	17	8	6	54	37	59
2	FC Iberia 1999	31	17	5	9	45	33	56
3	Dinamo Tbilisi	31	15	10	6	50	32	55
4	FC Rustavi	31	15	8	8	38	28	53
5	Dila Gori	30	12	4	14	40	37	40
6	Samgurali	31	11	6	14	43	55	39
7	Torpedo Kutaisi	30	9	10	11	48	41	37
8	FC Gagra	31	6	13	12	28	45	31
9	FC Spaeri	31	5	13	13	38	49	28
10	Meshakhte Tkibuli	31	3	11	17	23	50	20

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Samgurali	FC Spaeri
Dinamo Batumi	0-3 L	0-3 L
Meshakhte Tkibuli	2-0 W	2-2 D
FC Gagra	3-0 W	0-0 D
Dinamo Tbilisi	2-3 L	1-3 L
Torpedo Kutaisi	2-3 L	3-3 D
Dila Gori	1-3 L	1-4 L
FC Iberia 1999	1-2 L	0-1 L
FC Rustavi	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	0 W 4 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Samgurali (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Samgurali

LWDLLLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	0-3	3	0	L
17/10	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
11/10	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	3-0	2	1	W
19/09	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-2	2-3	4	5	L
14/09	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-2	2-3	8	3	L
09/09	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-2	1-3	6	3	L
05/09	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
30/08	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
22/08	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-3	4-3	1	4	W
16/08	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-3	0-4	1	4	L

FC Spaeri

DLLDDLLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
18/10	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	1-3	3	1	L
10/10	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-2	3-3	1	6	D
21/09	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-4	1-4	12	1	L
13/09	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
09/09	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
05/09	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-2	2-2	7	3	D
30/08	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-3	0-3	4	5	L
22/08	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	3-1	3-4	7	4	L
17/08	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	2	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Samgurali vs FC Spaeri?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Samgurali win (43%). Probabilities: Samgurali 43%, draw 26%, FC Spaeri 31%.

How many goals are expected in Samgurali vs FC Spaeri?

The model expects 3.21 goals (Samgurali 1.74 · FC Spaeri 1.47), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Samgurali vs FC Spaeri?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.