Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 12/07, 16:00
Prediction: FC Astana vs FK Aktobe
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.66Total
FC Astana1.55
FK Aktobe1.11
1X2
FC Astana
Draw
FK Aktobe
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
FC Astana
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
FK Aktobe
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Astana
3–1–2
FK Aktobe
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Astana 1539 · FK Aktobe 1511
| FC Astana | Draw | FK Aktobe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 28% | 26% |
| Market | 47% | 27% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours FC Astana: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Astana | FK Aktobe | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.8 | 1.3 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.2 | 0.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.2 | 2.6 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.4 | 5.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Astana 3–1–2 FK Aktobe
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/26 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Aktobe | 2-0 HT 1-0 | FC Astana |
| 19/10/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | FC Astana | 5-3 HT 4-2 | FK Aktobe |
| 22/06/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Aktobe | 0-1 HT 0-0 | FC Astana |
| 27/10/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | FC Astana | 2-0 HT 2-0 | FK Aktobe |
| 04/05/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Aktobe | 1-1 HT 0-1 | FC Astana |
| 30/09/23 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Aktobe | 2-0 HT 1-0 | FC Astana |
Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 16 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 28 | 9 | 40 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 18 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 34 | 12 | 39 |
| 3 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 21 | 27 |
| 4 | FC Elimai Semey | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 19 | 26 |
| 5 | FC Astana | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 17 | 26 |
| 6 | FK Aktobe | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 15 | 25 |
| 7 | FK Ulytau | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 15 | 23 |
| 8 | FK Atyrau | 16 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 13 | 18 |
| 9 | Zhetysu | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 21 | 24 | 18 |
| 10 | FK Zhenys | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 18 |
| 10 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 17 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 19 | 18 |
| 12 | FK Kyzylzhar | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 25 | 15 |
| 13 | Tobol Kostanay | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 24 | 15 |
| 14 | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 20 | 14 |
| 15 | FC Altai Semey | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 13 |
| 16 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 21 | 11 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Astana | FK Aktobe |
|---|---|---|
| FC Altai Semey | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| FK Kyzylzhar | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: FK Aktobe (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Astana
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | FC Dinamo City UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 03/07 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 28/06 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 9 | D |
| 21/06 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 14/06 | Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 27/05 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 22/05 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
FK Aktobe
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 7 | W |
| 27/06 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 21/06 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 14/06 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 28/05 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 23/05 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 17/05 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 13/05 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Cup |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 8 | D |
| 10/05 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Astana vs FK Aktobe?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Astana win (46%). Probabilities: FC Astana 46%, draw 28%, FK Aktobe 26%.
How many goals are expected in FC Astana vs FK Aktobe?
The model expects 2.66 goals (FC Astana 1.55 · FK Aktobe 1.11), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Astana vs FK Aktobe?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.