Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 11/07, 17:00
Prediction: FK Kaspyi Aktau vs Ordabasy
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.19Total
FK Kaspyi Aktau0.62
Ordabasy1.57
1X2
FK Kaspyi Aktau
Draw
Ordabasy
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
0-1
Recent form · 10 last
FK Kaspyi Aktau
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Ordabasy
9-1-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FK Kaspyi Aktau
2–4
Ordabasy
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Kaspyi Aktau 1497 · Ordabasy 1616
| FK Kaspyi Aktau | Draw | Ordabasy | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 13% | 27% | 59% |
| Market | 15% | 24% | 61% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ordabasy (rating 1497 vs 1616).
- H2H favours Ordabasy: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Kaspyi Aktau | Ordabasy | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.2 | 1.7 / 0.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 4.2 | 2.3 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.2 | 4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Kaspyi Aktau 2–0–4 Ordabasy
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/26 Kazakhstan Premier League | Ordabasy | 2-0 HT 2-0 | FK Kaspyi Aktau |
| 30/04/26 Kazakhstan Cup | Ordabasy | 3-0 HT 1-0 | FK Kaspyi Aktau |
| 29/10/23 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Ordabasy |
| 04/03/23 Kazakhstan Premier League | Ordabasy | 3-1 HT 1-0 | FK Kaspyi Aktau |
| 04/07/22 Kazakhstan Premier League | Ordabasy | 4-1 HT 2-0 | FK Kaspyi Aktau |
| 03/04/22 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Ordabasy |
Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 16 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 28 | 9 | 40 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 18 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 34 | 12 | 39 |
| 3 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 21 | 27 |
| 4 | FC Elimai Semey | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 19 | 26 |
| 5 | FC Astana | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 17 | 26 |
| 6 | FK Aktobe | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 15 | 25 |
| 7 | FK Ulytau | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 15 | 23 |
| 8 | FK Atyrau | 16 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 13 | 18 |
| 9 | Zhetysu | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 21 | 24 | 18 |
| 10 | FK Zhenys | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 18 |
| 10 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 17 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 19 | 18 |
| 12 | FK Kyzylzhar | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 25 | 15 |
| 13 | Tobol Kostanay | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 24 | 15 |
| 14 | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 20 | 14 |
| 15 | FC Altai Semey | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 13 |
| 16 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 21 | 11 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FK Kaspyi Aktau | Ordabasy |
|---|---|---|
| FK Ulytau | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| FC Elimai Semey | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Ordabasy (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Kaspyi Aktau
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 27/06 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 14/06 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 28/05 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 22/05 | Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 10 | L |
| 09/05 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 03/05 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 30/04 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Cup |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
Ordabasy
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 28/06 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 28/05 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 13/05 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FK Kaspyi Aktau vs Ordabasy?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Ordabasy win (60%). Probabilities: FK Kaspyi Aktau 14%, draw 25%, Ordabasy 60%.
How many goals are expected in FK Kaspyi Aktau vs Ordabasy?
The model expects 2.19 goals (FK Kaspyi Aktau 0.62 · Ordabasy 1.57), with a 57% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in FK Kaspyi Aktau vs Ordabasy?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.