Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 12/07, 17:00
Prediction: Tobol Kostanay vs Okzhetpes Kokshetau
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.74Total
Tobol Kostanay1.65
Okzhetpes Kokshetau1.1
1X2
Tobol Kostanay
Draw
Okzhetpes Kokshetau
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Tobol Kostanay
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Okzhetpes Kokshetau
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Tobol Kostanay
5–1
Okzhetpes Kokshetau
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tobol Kostanay 1484 · Okzhetpes Kokshetau 1494
| Tobol Kostanay | Draw | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Market | 50% | 26% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Tobol Kostanay: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tobol Kostanay | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.5 | 2.8 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.4 | 4.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tobol Kostanay 5–0–1 Okzhetpes Kokshetau
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/26 Kazakhstan Premier League | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Tobol Kostanay |
| 13/07/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | Tobol Kostanay | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau |
| 05/04/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Tobol Kostanay |
| 23/07/23 Kazakhstan Premier League | Tobol Kostanay | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau |
| 28/05/23 Kazakhstan Premier League | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Tobol Kostanay |
| 24/11/20 Kazakhstan Premier League | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Tobol Kostanay |
Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 16 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 28 | 9 | 40 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 18 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 34 | 12 | 39 |
| 3 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 21 | 27 |
| 4 | FC Elimai Semey | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 19 | 26 |
| 5 | FC Astana | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 17 | 26 |
| 6 | FK Aktobe | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 15 | 25 |
| 7 | FK Ulytau | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 15 | 23 |
| 8 | FK Atyrau | 16 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 13 | 18 |
| 9 | Zhetysu | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 21 | 24 | 18 |
| 10 | FK Zhenys | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 18 |
| 10 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 17 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 19 | 18 |
| 12 | FK Kyzylzhar | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 25 | 15 |
| 13 | Tobol Kostanay | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 24 | 15 |
| 14 | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 20 | 14 |
| 15 | FC Altai Semey | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 13 |
| 16 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 21 | 11 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tobol Kostanay | Okzhetpes Kokshetau |
|---|---|---|
| FC Altai Semey | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| FK Kyzylzhar | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| FK Atyrau | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| FK Zhenys | 0-1 L | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tobol Kostanay
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 28/06 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 28/05 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 23/05 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 13/05 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 09/05 | Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | L |
Okzhetpes Kokshetau
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-3 | 0-5 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 27/06 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 21/06 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 28/05 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 22/05 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 02/05 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 29/04 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Cup |
1-1 | 2-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tobol Kostanay vs Okzhetpes Kokshetau?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Tobol Kostanay win (49%). Probabilities: Tobol Kostanay 49%, draw 26%, Okzhetpes Kokshetau 25%.
How many goals are expected in Tobol Kostanay vs Okzhetpes Kokshetau?
The model expects 2.74 goals (Tobol Kostanay 1.65 · Okzhetpes Kokshetau 1.1), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Tobol Kostanay vs Okzhetpes Kokshetau?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.