Football · Brazil Serie A · 04/11, 23:30

Prediction: Athletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama

Team pages: Athletico Paranaense · Vasco da Gama

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Athletico Paranaense1.63

Vasco da Gama1.2

1X2

46% 27% 27%

Athletico Paranaense Draw Vasco da Gama

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Athletico Paranaense 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DWDLDWDWLD

Vasco da Gama 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLWWWDLW

Head-to-head

Athletico Paranaense 2–1–3 Vasco da Gama (6 last)

Vasco da Gama1-0Athletico Paranaense
Athletico Paranaense2-1Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama2-1Athletico Paranaense
Vasco da Gama2-1Athletico Paranaense
Athletico Paranaense1-0Vasco da Gama
Athletico Paranaense0-0Vasco da Gama

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Athletico Paranaense 1504 · Vasco da Gama 1545

	Athletico Paranaense	Draw	Vasco da Gama
Our model	46%	27%	27%
Market	46%	26%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vasco da Gama (rating 1504 vs 1545).
H2H favours Vasco da Gama: 3-1-2.
High corners: 13.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Athletico Paranaense	Vasco da Gama
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.9	1.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.7	3.1 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.50

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.05

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:44 +2’	2.00	3.50	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Athletico Paranaense 2–1–3 Vasco da Gama

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/05/26 Brazil Serie A	Vasco da Gama	1-0 HT 1-0	Athletico Paranaense
12/09/24 Copa do Brasil	Athletico Paranaense	2-1 HT 2-1	Vasco da Gama
30/08/24 Copa do Brasil	Vasco da Gama	2-1 HT 0-1	Athletico Paranaense
27/08/24 Brazil Serie A	Vasco da Gama	2-1 HT 0-1	Athletico Paranaense
05/05/24 Brazil Serie A	Athletico Paranaense	1-0 HT 1-0	Vasco da Gama
25/11/23 Brazil Serie A	Athletico Paranaense	0-0 HT 0-0	Vasco da Gama

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	32	21	7	4	64	27	70
2	Palmeiras	32	20	9	3	56	22	69
3	Cruzeiro	32	16	6	10	51	46	54
4	Athletico Paranaense	32	15	9	8	50	38	54
5	Fluminense	32	14	9	9	50	41	51
6	Atletico Mineiro	32	14	8	10	44	38	50
7	EC Bahia	32	13	11	8	45	40	50
8	Santos	32	12	10	10	49	47	46
9	Sao Paulo	32	12	7	13	37	36	43
10	Bragantino	32	11	8	13	39	38	41
11	Botafogo	32	10	9	13	44	51	39
12	Coritiba	32	10	9	13	38	50	39
13	Vasco da Gama	31	10	8	13	39	45	38
14	Vitoria	32	10	8	14	35	46	38
15	Mirassol	32	9	10	13	37	45	37
16	Internacional	32	8	11	13	36	40	35
17	Gremio	32	8	10	14	35	44	34
18	Corinthians	32	8	9	15	34	42	33
19	Remo	32	5	11	16	34	50	26
20	Chapecoense	31	4	9	18	32	63	21

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Athletico Paranaense	Vasco da Gama
Palmeiras	0-2 L	1-4 L
Coritiba	3-3 D	5-0 W
Cruzeiro	1-3 L	3-1 W
Fluminense	3-3 D	0-1 L
Botafogo	3-2 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Athletico Paranaense

DWDLDWDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-1	5	6	D
18/10	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-2	16	5	L
13/10	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	3-0	4-1	7	3	W
09/10	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-2	10	3	D
21/09	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
12/09	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	2-1	3-3	3	8	D
06/09	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-3	2	4	L
30/08	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-3	8	4	D
25/08	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	2-0	3-2	2	3	W
15/08	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	8	1	D

Vasco da Gama

LLWLWWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-2	3	4	W
18/10	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
10/10	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
08/10	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	14	1	W
20/09	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	2-0	5-0	12	3	W
12/09	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	5	6	W
06/09	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
30/08	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-1	11	3	W
23/08	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-4	3	4	L
16/08	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-3	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Athletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Athletico Paranaense win (46%). Probabilities: Athletico Paranaense 46%, draw 27%, Vasco da Gama 27%.

How many goals are expected in Athletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Athletico Paranaense 1.63 · Vasco da Gama 1.2), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Athletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.