Football · Brazil Serie A · 04/11, 01:30

Prediction: Internacional vs Coritiba

Team pages: Internacional · Coritiba

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.15Total

Internacional2.07

Coritiba1.08

1X2

59% 23% 18%

Internacional Draw Coritiba

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Internacional 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDLLWLWDLW

Coritiba 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DWWLDLLDLL

Head-to-head

Internacional 2–3–1 Coritiba (6 last)

Coritiba2-2Internacional
Internacional3-4Coritiba
Coritiba0-1Internacional
Coritiba1-1Internacional
Internacional3-0Coritiba
Internacional2-2Coritiba

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Internacional 1481 · Coritiba 1443

	Internacional	Draw	Coritiba
Our model	59%	23%	18%
Market	59%	24%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.15 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Internacional: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Internacional	Coritiba
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	1.1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.4	2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.4 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.90

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.02

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.02

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:39 +5’	1.57	3.90	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Internacional 2–3–1 Coritiba

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Brazil Serie A	Coritiba	2-2 HT 1-0	Internacional
29/10/23 Brazil Serie A	Internacional	3-4 HT 1-2	Coritiba
23/06/23 Brazil Serie A	Coritiba	0-1 HT 0-0	Internacional
23/10/22 Brazil Serie A	Coritiba	1-1 HT 1-0	Internacional
25/06/22 Brazil Serie A	Internacional	3-0 HT 2-0	Coritiba
08/11/20 Brazil Serie A	Internacional	2-2 HT 1-0	Coritiba

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	32	21	7	4	64	27	70
2	Palmeiras	32	20	9	3	56	22	69
3	Cruzeiro	32	16	6	10	51	46	54
4	Athletico Paranaense	32	15	9	8	50	38	54
5	Fluminense	32	14	9	9	50	41	51
6	Atletico Mineiro	32	14	8	10	44	38	50
7	EC Bahia	32	13	11	8	45	40	50
8	Santos	32	12	10	10	49	47	46
9	Sao Paulo	32	12	7	13	37	36	43
10	Bragantino	32	11	8	13	39	38	41
11	Botafogo	32	10	9	13	44	51	39
12	Coritiba	32	10	9	13	38	50	39
13	Vasco da Gama	31	10	8	13	39	45	38
14	Vitoria	32	10	8	14	35	46	38
15	Mirassol	32	9	10	13	37	45	37
16	Internacional	32	8	11	13	36	40	35
17	Gremio	32	8	10	14	35	44	34
18	Corinthians	32	8	9	15	34	42	33
19	Remo	32	5	11	16	34	50	26
20	Chapecoense	31	4	9	18	32	63	21

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Internacional	Coritiba
Botafogo	3-0 W	1-1 D
Mirassol	0-2 L	1-2 L
Gremio	1-1 D	0-1 L
Corinthians	2-1 W	2-1 W
Sao Paulo	0-1 L	1-1 D
Atletico Mineiro	0-0 D	0-1 L
Remo	1-1 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Internacional

DDLLWLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	2-0	3-0	9	3	W
17/10	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-2	2	9	L
11/10	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
08/10	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	3	9	W
20/09	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
12/09	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	2	8	W
06/09	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-3	2-3	7	9	L
31/08	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-3	2-3	3	6	L
22/08	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
18/08	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	5	D

Coritiba

DWWLDLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
17/10	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
12/10	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-1	8	7	D
09/10	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-4	2	1	L
20/09	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-5	2	3	L
12/09	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-2	3-3	8	8	D
06/09	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-2	5	5	L
01/09	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-0	3-2	4	4	W
24/08	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
16/08	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	3	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Internacional vs Coritiba?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Internacional win (59%). Probabilities: Internacional 59%, draw 23%, Coritiba 18%.

How many goals are expected in Internacional vs Coritiba?

The model expects 3.15 goals (Internacional 2.07 · Coritiba 1.08), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Internacional vs Coritiba?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.