Football · Australia Capital Territory Premier League · 22/08, 07:00

Prediction: Tuggeranong Utd vs Canberra Juventus

Team pages: Tuggeranong Utd · Canberra Juventus

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.06Total

Tuggeranong Utd2.05

Canberra Juventus2.02

1X2

39% 23% 38%

Tuggeranong Utd Draw Canberra Juventus

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Tuggeranong Utd 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Canberra Juventus 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Tuggeranong Utd 0–1 Canberra Juventus (1 last)

Canberra Juventus5-0Tuggeranong Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tuggeranong Utd 1535 · Canberra Juventus 1491

	Tuggeranong Utd	Draw	Canberra Juventus
Our model	40%	22%	38%
Market	39%	23%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 4.06 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tuggeranong Utd (rating 1535 vs 1491).
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tuggeranong Utd	Canberra Juventus
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 2	1.6 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 1.1	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 4.9	2.6 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.7 / 0	4.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.90

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
04:37 +20’	2.30	3.90	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tuggeranong Utd 0–0–1 Canberra Juventus

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	Canberra Juventus	5-0 HT 1-0	Tuggeranong Utd

Standings · Australia Capital Territory Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Canberra Croatia FC	19	15	1	3	56	27	46
2	Tigers FC	20	14	2	4	59	24	44
3	Monaro Panthers	19	14	1	4	66	26	43
4	Tuggeranong Utd	19	13	0	6	47	39	39
5	Canberra Juventus	19	12	0	7	42	33	36
6	Queanbeyan City	19	11	2	6	41	28	35
7	Canberra Olympic	19	6	2	11	40	51	20
8	O'Connor Knights	19	6	2	11	24	38	20
9	Belconnen United	19	2	3	14	25	46	9
10	Brindabella Blues FC	19	3	0	16	11	61	9
11	Canberra White Eagles	19	2	1	16	17	55	7

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tuggeranong Utd	Canberra Juventus
Brindabella Blues FC	6-0 W	2-0 W
Queanbeyan City	2-4 L	1-2 L
Canberra Olympic	2-1 W	3-2 W
Tigers FC	1-4 L	1-5 L
Canberra White Eagles	2-1 W	4-2 W
Belconnen United	1-0 W	1-0 W
Canberra Croatia FC	2-1 W	0-4 L
O'Connor Knights	3-2 W	2-0 W
Monaro Panthers	1-6 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 3 L	5 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Canberra Juventus (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tuggeranong Utd

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/08	Brindabella Blues FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	4-0	6-0	10	1	W
05/08	Queanbeyan City Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-1	2-4	5	3	L
01/08	Canberra Olympic Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
25/07	Tigers FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-2	1-4	6	2	L
22/07	Canberra White Eagles Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
11/07	Belconnen United Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
28/06	Canberra Croatia FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-1	2-1	3	1	W
13/06	O'Connor Knights Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-0	3-2	4	1	W
10/06	Monaro Panthers Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-4	1-6	1	1	L
03/06	Belconnen United Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-1	3-1	7	0	W

Canberra Juventus

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Queanbeyan City Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
09/08	Canberra White Eagles Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-1	4-2	10	5	W
02/08	Canberra Croatia FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-1	0-4	5	5	L
26/07	Monaro Panthers Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
21/07	Canberra Croatia FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-3	2-5	4	2	L
11/07	O'Connor Knights Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-0	2-0	1	2	W
04/07	Belconnen United Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
28/06	Brindabella Blues FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-0	2-0	6	6	W
14/06	Tigers FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-2	1-5	5	2	L
10/06	Canberra Olympic Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-0	3-2	9	15	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tuggeranong Utd vs Canberra Juventus?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tuggeranong Utd win (39%). Probabilities: Tuggeranong Utd 39%, draw 23%, Canberra Juventus 38%.

How many goals are expected in Tuggeranong Utd vs Canberra Juventus?

The model expects 4.06 goals (Tuggeranong Utd 2.05 · Canberra Juventus 2.02), with a 54% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Tuggeranong Utd vs Canberra Juventus?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.