Football · Australia Capital Territory Premier League · 22/08, 07:00

Prediction: Canberra Croatia FC vs Belconnen United

Team pages: Canberra Croatia FC · Belconnen United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.2Total

Canberra Croatia FC3.1

Belconnen United1.1

1X2

81% 11% 8%

Canberra Croatia FC Draw Belconnen United

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

3-1

Recent form · 10 last

Canberra Croatia FC 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWDLWWWWWW

Belconnen United 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLDLLL

Head-to-head

Canberra Croatia FC 4–1–1 Belconnen United (6 last)

Belconnen United1-4Canberra Croatia FC
Belconnen United1-1Canberra Croatia FC
Canberra Croatia FC4-0Belconnen United
Canberra Croatia FC2-0Belconnen United
Belconnen United0-4Canberra Croatia FC
Canberra Croatia FC1-2Belconnen United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Canberra Croatia FC 1605 · Belconnen United 1397

	Canberra Croatia FC	Draw	Belconnen United
Our model	76%	14%	10%
Market	85%	8%	6%

Estimated total (ours) 4.2 goals · Bet365 line 4.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Canberra Croatia FC (rating 1605 vs 1397).
H2H favours Canberra Croatia FC: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Canberra Croatia FC	Belconnen United
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 1.4	0.9 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 8	2.1 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.5	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.08

X11.00

215.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3)1.88

2 (+3)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.98

Under 4.51.82

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.08 → 1.13▲	Bet365 1.13
X	11.00 → 9.00▼	Bet365 9.00
2	15.00 → 12.00▼	Bet365 12.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.3%

Time*	1	X	2
04:55 +2’	1.08	11.00	15.00
09:44 +5’	1.13▲	9.00▼	12.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Canberra Croatia FC 4–1–1 Belconnen United

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	Belconnen United	1-4 HT 0-2	Canberra Croatia FC
27/08/22 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	Belconnen United	1-1 HT 1-1	Canberra Croatia FC
03/07/22 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	Canberra Croatia FC	4-0 HT 3-0	Belconnen United
08/05/22 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	Canberra Croatia FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Belconnen United
03/07/21 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	Belconnen United	0-4 HT 0-2	Canberra Croatia FC
08/05/21 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	Canberra Croatia FC	1-2 HT 0-2	Belconnen United

Standings · Australia Capital Territory Premier League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Canberra Croatia FC	19	15	1	3	56	27	46
2	Tigers FC	20	14	2	4	59	24	44
3	Monaro Panthers	19	14	1	4	66	26	43
4	Tuggeranong Utd	19	13	0	6	47	39	39
5	Canberra Juventus	19	12	0	7	42	33	36
6	Queanbeyan City	19	11	2	6	41	28	35
7	Canberra Olympic	19	6	2	11	40	51	20
8	O'Connor Knights	19	6	2	11	24	38	20
9	Belconnen United	19	2	3	14	25	46	9
10	Brindabella Blues FC	19	3	0	16	11	61	9
11	Canberra White Eagles	19	2	1	16	17	55	7

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Canberra Croatia FC	Belconnen United
Monaro Panthers	3-2 W	0-7 L
O'Connor Knights	5-4 W	1-1 D
Canberra Juventus	4-0 W	0-1 L
Brindabella Blues FC	2-0 W	4-1 W
Canberra Olympic	3-0 W	1-3 L
Tuggeranong Utd	1-2 L	0-1 L
Tigers FC	1-1 D	0-1 L
Canberra White Eagles	2-1 W	1-2 L
Queanbeyan City	4-2 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	7 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: Canberra Croatia FC (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Canberra Croatia FC

WWDLWWWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Monaro Panthers Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-0	3-2	4	8	W
08/08	O'Connor Knights Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-3	5-4	10	4	W
02/08	Canberra Juventus Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-0	4-0	1	5	W
21/07	Canberra Juventus Australia Capital Territory Premier League	3-0	5-2	6	2	W
11/07	Brindabella Blues FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-0	2-0	13	7	W
05/07	Canberra Olympic Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-0	3-0	7	2	W
28/06	Tuggeranong Utd Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-1	1-2	13	1	L
20/06	Tigers FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
17/06	Canberra White Eagles Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-0	2-1	19	6	W
10/06	Queanbeyan City Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-1	4-2	4	7	W

Belconnen United

LLWLLLDLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Canberra Olympic Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-1	1-3	7	2	L
08/08	Monaro Panthers Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-1	0-7	2	2	L
01/08	Tigers FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
25/07	O'Connor Knights Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
11/07	Tuggeranong Utd Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
04/07	Canberra Juventus Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-1	0-1	0	2	L
20/06	Queanbeyan City Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
13/06	Brindabella Blues FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-0	4-1	3	4	W
10/06	Canberra White Eagles Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
03/06	Tuggeranong Utd Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-2	1-3	4	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Canberra Croatia FC vs Belconnen United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Canberra Croatia FC win (81%). Probabilities: Canberra Croatia FC 81%, draw 11%, Belconnen United 8%.

How many goals are expected in Canberra Croatia FC vs Belconnen United?

The model expects 4.2 goals (Canberra Croatia FC 3.1 · Belconnen United 1.1), with a 55% chance of under 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Canberra Croatia FC vs Belconnen United?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.