Football · Australia Capital Territory Premier League · 08/08, 09:45

Prediction: Monaro Panthers vs Belconnen United

Team pages: Monaro Panthers · Belconnen United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.24Total

Monaro Panthers3.12

Belconnen United1.12

1X2

81% 11% 7%

Monaro Panthers Draw Belconnen United

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

3-1

Recent form · 10 last

Monaro Panthers 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWWWD

Belconnen United 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Monaro Panthers 4–2–0 Belconnen United (6 last)

Belconnen United1-3Monaro Panthers
Monaro Panthers2-2Belconnen United
Monaro Panthers6-0Belconnen United
Belconnen United0-3Monaro Panthers
Monaro Panthers1-0Belconnen United
Monaro Panthers2-2Belconnen United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Monaro Panthers 1613 · Belconnen United 1411

	Monaro Panthers	Draw	Belconnen United
Our model	76%	14%	10%
Market	85%	9%	5%

Estimated total (ours) 4.24 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Monaro Panthers (rating 1613 vs 1411).
H2H favours Monaro Panthers: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Monaro Panthers	Belconnen United
Goals for / against (FT)	3.6 / 1.2	1.3 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.7	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6.1	1.9 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.3	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.09

X10.00

217.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3)2.00

2 (+3)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 41.85

Under 41.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.09 → 1.09	Bet365 1.09
X	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00
2	17.00 → 17.00	Bet365 17.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
03:32 +8’	1.09	10.00	17.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Monaro Panthers 4–2–0 Belconnen United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	Belconnen United	1-3 HT 0-1	Monaro Panthers
30/07/22 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	Monaro Panthers	2-2 HT 2-0	Belconnen United
28/05/22 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	Monaro Panthers	6-0 HT 0-0	Belconnen United
02/04/22 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	Belconnen United	0-3 HT 0-1	Monaro Panthers
07/08/21 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	Monaro Panthers	1-0 HT 0-0	Belconnen United
19/06/21 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	Monaro Panthers	2-2 HT 0-0	Belconnen United

Standings · Australia Capital Territory Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Canberra Croatia FC	17	14	1	2	52	18	43
2	Monaro Panthers	17	13	1	3	57	23	40
3	Tigers FC	18	12	2	4	48	21	38
4	Tuggeranong Utd	18	12	0	6	41	39	36
5	Queanbeyan City	18	10	2	6	39	27	32
6	Canberra Juventus	17	10	0	7	34	33	30
7	Canberra Olympic	17	5	2	10	35	45	17
8	O'Connor Knights	17	5	2	10	17	32	17
9	Belconnen United	17	2	3	12	24	36	9
10	Brindabella Blues FC	17	3	0	14	10	49	9
11	Canberra White Eagles	17	2	1	14	14	48	7

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Monaro Panthers	Belconnen United
O'Connor Knights	1-1 D	1-1 D
Canberra Juventus	3-0 W	0-1 L
Queanbeyan City	2-1 W	1-2 L
Brindabella Blues FC	9-0 W	4-1 W
Tigers FC	2-0 W	0-1 L
Canberra Olympic	5-2 W	4-4 D
Tuggeranong Utd	6-1 W	0-1 L
Canberra White Eagles	2-1 W	1-2 L
Canberra Croatia FC	1-4 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	7 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Monaro Panthers (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Monaro Panthers

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	O'Connor Knights Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-0	1-1	5	7	D
26/07	Canberra Juventus Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-0	3-0	6	5	W
07/07	Queanbeyan City Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-1	2-1	5	7	W
04/07	Brindabella Blues FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	3-0	9-0	9	0	W
27/06	Tigers FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
20/06	Canberra Olympic Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-1	5-2	5	4	W
13/06	Queanbeyan City Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-1	5-2	6	1	W
10/06	Tuggeranong Utd Australia Capital Territory Premier League	4-0	6-1	8	1	W
30/05	Canberra White Eagles Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-1	2-1	9	2	W
24/05	Canberra Croatia FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-3	1-4	4	6	L

Belconnen United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Tigers FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
25/07	O'Connor Knights Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
11/07	Tuggeranong Utd Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
04/07	Canberra Juventus Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-1	0-1	0	2	L
20/06	Queanbeyan City Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
13/06	Brindabella Blues FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-0	4-1	3	4	W
10/06	Canberra White Eagles Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
03/06	Tuggeranong Utd Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-2	1-3	4	0	L
30/05	Canberra Croatia FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-2	1-4	2	2	L
23/05	Canberra Olympic Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-2	4-4	3	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Monaro Panthers vs Belconnen United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Monaro Panthers win (81%). Probabilities: Monaro Panthers 81%, draw 11%, Belconnen United 7%.

How many goals are expected in Monaro Panthers vs Belconnen United?

The model expects 4.24 goals (Monaro Panthers 3.12 · Belconnen United 1.12), with a 51% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Monaro Panthers vs Belconnen United?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.