Football · Australia Capital Territory Premier League · 15/08, 09:45

Prediction: Monaro Panthers vs Canberra Croatia FC

Team pages: Monaro Panthers · Canberra Croatia FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.02Total

Monaro Panthers2.21

Canberra Croatia FC1.82

1X2

46% 22% 31%

Monaro Panthers Draw Canberra Croatia FC

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Monaro Panthers 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

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Canberra Croatia FC 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Monaro Panthers 2–4 Canberra Croatia FC (6 last)

Canberra Croatia FC4-1Monaro Panthers
Canberra Croatia FC1-2Monaro Panthers
Canberra Croatia FC0-2Monaro Panthers
Monaro Panthers2-3Canberra Croatia FC
Canberra Croatia FC3-0Monaro Panthers
Canberra Croatia FC4-0Monaro Panthers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Monaro Panthers 1618 · Canberra Croatia FC 1576

	Monaro Panthers	Draw	Canberra Croatia FC
Our model	47%	22%	32%
Market	46%	23%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 4.02 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Monaro Panthers (rating 1618 vs 1576).
H2H favours Canberra Croatia FC: 4-0-2.
High corners: 14.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Monaro Panthers	Canberra Croatia FC
Goals for / against (FT)	4.2 / 0.8	2.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.4	1.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/10/10%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.5	3.1 / 7.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.95

X4.00

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 1.5 · xG: 4.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
08:35 +4’	1.95	4.00	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Monaro Panthers 2–0–4 Canberra Croatia FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	Canberra Croatia FC	4-1 HT 3-1	Monaro Panthers
13/09/25 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	Canberra Croatia FC	1-2 HT 1-1	Monaro Panthers
12/07/25 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	Canberra Croatia FC	0-2 HT 0-0	Monaro Panthers
11/06/25 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	Monaro Panthers	2-3 HT 2-1	Canberra Croatia FC
18/05/25 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	Canberra Croatia FC	3-0 HT 1-0	Monaro Panthers
29/04/25 Australia FFA Cup Qualifying	Canberra Croatia FC	4-0 HT 3-0	Monaro Panthers

Standings · Australia Capital Territory Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Canberra Croatia FC	18	15	1	2	57	22	46
2	Monaro Panthers	18	14	1	3	64	23	43
3	Tigers FC	19	13	2	4	53	23	41
4	Tuggeranong Utd	19	13	0	6	47	39	39
5	Canberra Juventus	18	11	0	7	38	35	33
6	Queanbeyan City	18	10	2	6	39	27	32
7	Canberra Olympic	18	5	2	11	37	50	17
8	O'Connor Knights	18	5	2	11	21	37	17
9	Belconnen United	18	2	3	13	24	43	9
10	Brindabella Blues FC	18	3	0	15	10	55	9
11	Canberra White Eagles	18	2	1	15	16	52	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Monaro Panthers	Canberra Croatia FC
O'Connor Knights	1-1 D	5-4 W
Canberra Juventus	3-0 W	4-0 W
Queanbeyan City	2-1 W	4-2 W
Brindabella Blues FC	9-0 W	2-0 W
Tigers FC	2-0 W	1-1 D
Canberra Olympic	5-2 W	3-0 W
Tuggeranong Utd	6-1 W	1-2 L
Canberra White Eagles	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	7 W 1 D 0 L	6 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Monaro Panthers

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Belconnen United Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-0	7-0	8	2	W
01/08	O'Connor Knights Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-0	1-1	5	7	D
26/07	Canberra Juventus Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-0	3-0	6	5	W
07/07	Queanbeyan City Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-1	2-1	5	7	W
04/07	Brindabella Blues FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	3-0	9-0	9	0	W
27/06	Tigers FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
20/06	Canberra Olympic Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-1	5-2	5	4	W
13/06	Queanbeyan City Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-1	5-2	6	1	W
10/06	Tuggeranong Utd Australia Capital Territory Premier League	4-0	6-1	8	1	W
30/05	Canberra White Eagles Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-1	2-1	9	2	W

Canberra Croatia FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	O'Connor Knights Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-3	5-4	10	4	W
02/08	Canberra Juventus Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-0	4-0	1	5	W
21/07	Canberra Juventus Australia Capital Territory Premier League	3-0	5-2	6	2	W
11/07	Brindabella Blues FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-0	2-0	13	7	W
05/07	Canberra Olympic Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-0	3-0	7	2	W
28/06	Tuggeranong Utd Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-1	1-2	13	1	L
20/06	Tigers FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
17/06	Canberra White Eagles Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-0	2-1	19	6	W
10/06	Queanbeyan City Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-1	4-2	4	7	W
06/06	Tigers FC Australia Cup Qualifying	1-1	1-5	3	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Monaro Panthers vs Canberra Croatia FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Monaro Panthers win (46%). Probabilities: Monaro Panthers 46%, draw 22%, Canberra Croatia FC 31%.

How many goals are expected in Monaro Panthers vs Canberra Croatia FC?

The model expects 4.02 goals (Monaro Panthers 2.21 · Canberra Croatia FC 1.82), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Monaro Panthers vs Canberra Croatia FC?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.