Football · Australia Capital Territory Premier League · 08/08, 09:30

Prediction: Canberra Croatia FC vs O'Connor Knights

Team pages: Canberra Croatia FC · O'Connor Knights

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.84Total

Canberra Croatia FC2.92

O'Connor Knights0.92

1X2

80% 12% 8%

Canberra Croatia FC Draw O'Connor Knights

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Canberra Croatia FC 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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O'Connor Knights 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Canberra Croatia FC 5–1 O'Connor Knights (6 last)

O'Connor Knights1-5Canberra Croatia FC
O'Connor Knights2-3Canberra Croatia FC
Canberra Croatia FC9-1O'Connor Knights
O'Connor Knights1-4Canberra Croatia FC
O'Connor Knights2-1Canberra Croatia FC
O'Connor Knights2-4Canberra Croatia FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Canberra Croatia FC 1592 · O'Connor Knights 1448

	Canberra Croatia FC	Draw	O'Connor Knights
Our model	77%	14%	8%
Market	83%	10%	7%

Estimated total (ours) 3.84 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Canberra Croatia FC (rating 1592 vs 1448).
H2H favours Canberra Croatia FC: 5-0-1.
High corners: 13.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Canberra Croatia FC	O'Connor Knights
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 1.4	0.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.4	0.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 7.2	2.7 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.6	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.13

X9.00

213.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.75)1.98

2 (+2.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 41.85

Under 41.95

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.13 → 1.13	Bet365 1.13
X	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00
2	13.00 → 13.00	Bet365 13.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
03:38 +2’	1.13	9.00	13.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Canberra Croatia FC 5–0–1 O'Connor Knights

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	O'Connor Knights	1-5 HT 0-3	Canberra Croatia FC
26/07/25 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	O'Connor Knights	2-3 HT 0-2	Canberra Croatia FC
31/05/25 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	Canberra Croatia FC	9-1 HT 4-1	O'Connor Knights
05/04/25 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	O'Connor Knights	1-4 HT 1-2	Canberra Croatia FC
17/08/24 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	O'Connor Knights	2-1 HT 1-1	Canberra Croatia FC
22/06/24 Australia Capital Territory Premier League	O'Connor Knights	2-4 HT 0-2	Canberra Croatia FC

Standings · Australia Capital Territory Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Canberra Croatia FC	17	14	1	2	52	18	43
2	Monaro Panthers	17	13	1	3	57	23	40
3	Tigers FC	18	12	2	4	48	21	38
4	Tuggeranong Utd	18	12	0	6	41	39	36
5	Queanbeyan City	18	10	2	6	39	27	32
6	Canberra Juventus	17	10	0	7	34	33	30
7	Canberra Olympic	17	5	2	10	35	45	17
8	O'Connor Knights	17	5	2	10	17	32	17
9	Belconnen United	17	2	3	12	24	36	9
10	Brindabella Blues FC	17	3	0	14	10	49	9
11	Canberra White Eagles	17	2	1	14	14	48	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Canberra Croatia FC	O'Connor Knights
Canberra Juventus	4-0 W	0-2 L
Brindabella Blues FC	2-0 W	0-1 L
Canberra Olympic	3-0 W	1-0 W
Tuggeranong Utd	1-2 L	2-3 L
Tigers FC	1-1 D	0-1 L
Canberra White Eagles	2-1 W	2-0 W
Queanbeyan City	4-2 W	0-4 L
Belconnen United	4-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Canberra Croatia FC (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Canberra Croatia FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Canberra Juventus Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-0	4-0	1	5	W
21/07	Canberra Juventus Australia Capital Territory Premier League	3-0	5-2	6	2	W
11/07	Brindabella Blues FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-0	2-0	13	7	W
05/07	Canberra Olympic Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-0	3-0	7	2	W
28/06	Tuggeranong Utd Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-1	1-2	13	1	L
20/06	Tigers FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
17/06	Canberra White Eagles Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-0	2-1	19	6	W
10/06	Queanbeyan City Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-1	4-2	4	7	W
06/06	Tigers FC Australia Cup Qualifying	1-1	1-5	3	8	L
30/05	Belconnen United Australia Capital Territory Premier League	2-0	4-1	3	2	W

O'Connor Knights

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Monaro Panthers Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-1	1-1	7	7	D
25/07	Belconnen United Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
11/07	Canberra Juventus Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-1	0-2	9	2	L
27/06	Canberra Olympic Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
20/06	Brindabella Blues FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-0	0-1	15	3	L
13/06	Tuggeranong Utd Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-2	2-3	5	1	L
10/06	Tigers FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
30/05	Queanbeyan City Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-0	0-4	3	2	L
23/05	Canberra White Eagles Australia Capital Territory Premier League	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
16/05	Canberra Croatia FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League	0-3	1-5	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Canberra Croatia FC vs O'Connor Knights?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Canberra Croatia FC win (80%). Probabilities: Canberra Croatia FC 80%, draw 12%, O'Connor Knights 8%.

How many goals are expected in Canberra Croatia FC vs O'Connor Knights?

The model expects 3.84 goals (Canberra Croatia FC 2.92 · O'Connor Knights 0.92), with a 53% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Canberra Croatia FC vs O'Connor Knights?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.