Football · Argentina Nacional B · 27/09, 23:00
Prediction: Gimnasia y Tiro vs Atletico Rafaela
Team pages: Gimnasia y Tiro · Atletico Rafaela
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.94Total
Gimnasia y Tiro1.22
Atletico Rafaela0.72
1X2
Gimnasia y Tiro
Draw
Atletico Rafaela
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 59%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
1-0 16%
Recent form · 10 last
Gimnasia y Tiro
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Atletico Rafaela
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Gimnasia y Tiro
1–1–1
Atletico Rafaela
(3 last)
- Atletico Rafaela1-0Gimnasia y Tiro
- Atletico Rafaela0-0Gimnasia y Tiro
- Gimnasia y Tiro1-0Atletico Rafaela
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gimnasia y Tiro 1539 · Atletico Rafaela 1516
| Gimnasia y Tiro | Draw | Atletico Rafaela | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 33% | 21% |
| Market | 47% | 32% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.94 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gimnasia y Tiro | Atletico Rafaela | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.6 | 1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.2 | 0.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.1 | 1.7 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.3 | 4.8 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gimnasia y Tiro 1–1–1 Atletico Rafaela
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 Argentina Nacional B | Atletico Rafaela | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Gimnasia y Tiro |
| 06/07/24 Argentina Nacional B | Atletico Rafaela | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Gimnasia y Tiro |
| 18/02/24 Argentina Nacional B | Gimnasia y Tiro | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Atletico Rafaela |
Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Atletico Temperley | 30 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 36 | 24 | 53 |
| 2 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 45 | 36 | 53 |
| 3 | Tristan Suarez | 28 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 28 | 14 | 50 |
| 4 | CA Atlanta | 29 | 15 | 3 | 11 | 34 | 28 | 48 |
| 5 | Ferrocarril Midland | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 34 | 25 | 47 |
| 6 | San Martin SJ | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 33 | 27 | 45 |
| 7 | Gimnasia y Tiro | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 31 | 27 | 45 |
| 8 | Atletico Rafaela | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 25 | 26 | 42 |
| 9 | Deportivo Maipu | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 37 | 31 | 41 |
| 10 | CA Colegiales | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 29 | 30 | 40 |
| 11 | San Martin de Tucuman | 30 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 32 | 30 | 39 |
| 12 | Agropecuario | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 26 | 34 | 36 |
| 13 | Quilmes | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 28 | 27 | 35 |
| 14 | Almagro | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 26 | 36 | 35 |
| 15 | Nueva Chicago | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 21 | 28 | 32 |
| 16 | Patronato Parana | 29 | 5 | 15 | 9 | 23 | 30 | 30 |
| 17 | Chacarita Juniors | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 22 | 31 | 30 |
| 18 | CA Guemes | 29 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 22 | 48 | 23 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gimnasia y Tiro | Atletico Rafaela |
|---|---|---|
| Agropecuario | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Tristan Suarez | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| CA Guemes | 3-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Chacarita Juniors | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| San Martin SJ | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Nueva Chicago | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Club Atletico Temperley | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 2 L | 3 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Gimnasia y Tiro (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gimnasia y Tiro
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | Tristan Suarez Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 06/09 | CA Guemes Argentina Nacional B |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 29/08 | Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 22/08 | San Martin SJ Argentina Nacional B |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 16/08 | Central Norte Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 09/08 | Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 05/08 | Almagro Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 02/08 | Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 26/07 | Deportivo Maipu Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
Atletico Rafaela
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | San Martin de Tucuman Argentina Nacional B |
2-2 | 4-2 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 13/09 | Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 06/09 | Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 29/08 | Tristan Suarez Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 24/08 | CA Guemes Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 15/08 | Defensores de Belgrano Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 08/08 | Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 01/08 | San Martin SJ Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 25/07 | Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 18/07 | Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 9 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gimnasia y Tiro vs Atletico Rafaela?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Gimnasia y Tiro win (47%). Probabilities: Gimnasia y Tiro 47%, draw 32%, Atletico Rafaela 21%.
How many goals are expected in Gimnasia y Tiro vs Atletico Rafaela?
The model expects 1.94 goals (Gimnasia y Tiro 1.22 · Atletico Rafaela 0.72), with a 52% chance of over 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Gimnasia y Tiro vs Atletico Rafaela?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.