Football · Finland Kakkonen Group B · 22/08, 14:00

Prediction: GrIFK vs Tampereen Ilves 2

Team pages: GrIFK · Tampereen Ilves 2

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.99Total

GrIFK1.58

Tampereen Ilves 22.41

1X2

24% 21% 55%

GrIFK Draw Tampereen Ilves 2

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

GrIFK 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

DWWLLLLWLW

Tampereen Ilves 2 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDWDLWLW

Head-to-head

GrIFK 4–2 Tampereen Ilves 2 (6 last)

Tampereen Ilves 26-2GrIFK
Tampereen Ilves 21-2GrIFK
GrIFK2-1Tampereen Ilves 2
GrIFK2-0Tampereen Ilves 2
Tampereen Ilves 23-1GrIFK
GrIFK1-0Tampereen Ilves 2

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · GrIFK 1493 · Tampereen Ilves 2 1548

	GrIFK	Draw	Tampereen Ilves 2
Our model	24%	21%	55%
Market	24%	21%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 3.99 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tampereen Ilves 2 (rating 1493 vs 1548).
H2H favours GrIFK: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	GrIFK	Tampereen Ilves 2
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.8	3.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.8	1.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	70/0/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.4	2.8 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.5	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.75

X4.33

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.00

2 (-0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.88

Under 3.751.93

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.61 → 1.61	Pinn 1.76 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
20:13 +10’	3.75	4.33	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:16 +1’	3.43	4.05	1.76

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · GrIFK 4–0–2 Tampereen Ilves 2

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/07/26 Finland Kakkonen Group B	Tampereen Ilves 2	6-2 HT 2-0	GrIFK
29/07/23 Finland Kakkonen Group B	Tampereen Ilves 2	1-2 HT 1-0	GrIFK
13/05/23 Finland Kakkonen Group B	GrIFK	2-1 HT 1-0	Tampereen Ilves 2
16/07/22 Finland Kakkonen Group B	GrIFK	2-0 HT 0-0	Tampereen Ilves 2
24/04/22 Finland Kakkonen Group B	Tampereen Ilves 2	3-1 HT 0-1	GrIFK
25/08/21 Finland Kakkonen Group B	GrIFK	1-0 HT 0-0	Tampereen Ilves 2

Standings · Finland Kakkonen Group B · Kakkonen 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Honka	17	12	4	1	54	17	40
2	AIFK	17	11	3	3	36	17	36
3	HJS	17	9	4	4	30	22	31
4	Tampereen Ilves 2	17	8	6	3	49	27	30
5	EPS	17	9	2	6	37	26	29
6	P-Iirot	17	8	3	6	29	23	27
7	GrIFK	17	6	3	8	20	29	21
8	EBK	17	4	3	10	27	41	15
9	MuSa	17	2	3	12	17	54	9
10	NJS	17	0	1	16	9	52	1

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	GrIFK	Tampereen Ilves 2
HJS	1-0 W	1-3 L
P-Iirot	0-2 L	1-2 L
EBK	2-1 W	3-2 W
FC Honka	1-2 L	2-2 D
AIFK	0-1 L	1-1 D
MuSa	1-3 L	7-0 W
NJS	2-0 W	4-0 W
EPS	3-1 W	4-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 4 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Tampereen Ilves 2 (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

GrIFK

DWWLLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	HJS Finland Kakkonen Group B	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
08/08	P-Iirot Finland Kakkonen Group B	0-1	0-2	4	6	L
31/07	EBK Finland Kakkonen Group B	0-0	2-1	5	10	W
25/07	FC Honka Finland Kakkonen Group B	0-2	1-2	1	6	L
17/07	AIFK Finland Kakkonen Group B	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
14/07	Tampereen Ilves 2 Finland Kakkonen Group B	0-2	2-6	1	6	L
09/07	MuSa Finland Kakkonen Group B	0-1	1-3	7	3	L
03/07	NJS Finland Kakkonen Group B	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
27/06	EPS Finland Kakkonen Group B	1-0	3-1	4	3	W
12/06	HJS Finland Kakkonen Group B	0-1	2-2	5	4	D

Tampereen Ilves 2

WWWDWDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	NJS Finland Kakkonen Group B	1-0	4-0	13	1	W
08/08	HJS Finland Kakkonen Group B	0-1	1-3	7	4	L
04/08	MuSa Finland Kakkonen Group B	1-0	7-0	9	1	W
24/07	P-Iirot Finland Kakkonen Group B	0-2	1-2	7	2	L
18/07	FC Honka Finland Kakkonen Group B	2-1	2-2	0	4	D
14/07	GrIFK Finland Kakkonen Group B	2-0	6-2	5	6	W
10/07	AIFK Finland Kakkonen Group B	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
05/07	EPS Finland Kakkonen Group B	3-1	4-2	4	5	W
28/06	EBK Finland Kakkonen Group B	0-1	3-2	1	3	W
13/06	NJS Finland Kakkonen Group B	4-1	7-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in GrIFK vs Tampereen Ilves 2?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Tampereen Ilves 2 win (55%). Probabilities: GrIFK 24%, draw 21%, Tampereen Ilves 2 55%.

How many goals are expected in GrIFK vs Tampereen Ilves 2?

The model expects 3.99 goals (GrIFK 1.58 · Tampereen Ilves 2 2.41), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in GrIFK vs Tampereen Ilves 2?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.