Football · Finland Kakkonen Group A · 18/07, 16:00

Prediction: HPS vs MyPa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.8Total

HPS2.29

MyPa1.51

1X2

54% 22% 24%

HPS Draw MyPa

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

HPS 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWDWLWWL

MyPa 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLDLDLLW

Head-to-head

HPS 1–0 MyPa (1 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HPS 1536 · MyPa 1426

	HPS	Draw	MyPa
Our model	54%	21%	24%
Market	54%	22%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.8 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HPS (rating 1536 vs 1426).
Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HPS	MyPa
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.4	0.8 / 3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.4 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.9	1.3 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.1	5.2 / 0

Head-to-head (H2H) · HPS 1–0–0 MyPa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Finland Kakkonen Group A	MyPa	1-3 HT 1-1	HPS

Standings · Finland Kakkonen Group A · Kakkonen 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kiffen	12	8	1	3	29	21	25
2	HIFK 2	12	7	3	2	26	13	24
3	PEPO	12	6	4	2	20	16	22
4	HPS	12	6	2	4	23	19	20
5	Reipas	12	5	2	5	25	21	17
6	Atlantis	12	5	1	6	34	28	16
7	PPJ	12	3	7	2	23	18	16
8	Puiu	12	3	2	7	14	25	11
9	MyPa	12	3	2	7	12	23	11
10	Union Plaani	12	1	2	9	11	33	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HPS	MyPa
PEPO	0-2 L	0-0 D
Reipas	3-2 W	0-5 L
Puiu	2-0 W	1-1 D
Kiffen	1-2 L	1-3 L
Union Plaani	2-0 W	2-0 W
PPJ	2-2 D	1-3 L
HIFK 2	2-0 W	0-4 L
Atlantis	4-3 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: HPS (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

HPS

LWWWDWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/07	PEPO Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
04/07	Reipas Finland Kakkonen Group A	2-0	3-2	2	4	W
27/06	Puiu Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
12/06	Kiffen Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	1-2	2	5	L
06/06	Union Plaani Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	2-0	8	4	W
31/05	PPJ Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	2-2	3	5	D
22/05	HIFK 2 Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	2-0	7	10	W
16/05	Atlantis Finland Kakkonen Group A	4-1	4-3	–	–	W
09/05	MyPa Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-1	3-1	5	10	W
02/05	PEPO Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	1-2	8	5	L

MyPa

DLLLDLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/07	Union Plaani Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-0	2-0	3	8	W
04/07	HIFK 2 Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	0-4	6	7	L
27/06	Atlantis Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-1	1-2	7	6	L
13/06	Puiu Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	1-1	2	4	D
06/06	PPJ Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-1	1-3	5	9	L
29/05	PEPO Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
26/05	HJK Helsinki Finland Cup	0-6	1-11	1	1	L
23/05	Kiffen Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	1-3	5	5	L
16/05	Reipas Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-4	0-5	2	6	L
13/05	KaPa Finland Cup	1-0	1-1	2	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HPS vs MyPa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a HPS win (54%). Probabilities: HPS 54%, draw 22%, MyPa 24%.

How many goals are expected in HPS vs MyPa?

The model expects 3.8 goals (HPS 2.29 · MyPa 1.51), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in HPS vs MyPa?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.