Football · Finland Kakkonen Group A · 25/07, 18:00

Prediction: Reipas vs MyPa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.29Total

Reipas2.9

MyPa1.4

1X2

67% 17% 15%

Reipas Draw MyPa

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Reipas 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWLLDL

MyPa 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLDLDLLWL

Head-to-head

Reipas 4–2 MyPa (6 last)

MyPa0-5Reipas
Reipas4-2MyPa
MyPa1-3Reipas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Reipas 1495 · MyPa 1403

	Reipas	Draw	MyPa
Our model	68%	17%	15%
Market	67%	18%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 4.29 goals · Bet365 line 4.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Reipas (rating 1495 vs 1403).
H2H favours Reipas: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Reipas	MyPa
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.9	0.9 / 3.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 1.1	0.4 / 1.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5	1.8 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	5.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.00

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.80

2 (+1.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.98

Under 4.251.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 4.1

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
10:12 +1’	1.33	5.00	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Reipas 4–0–2 MyPa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Finland Kakkonen Group A	MyPa	0-5 HT 0-4	Reipas
09/08/25 Finland Kakkonen Group A	Reipas	4-2 HT 3-0	MyPa
08/06/25 Finland Kakkonen Group A	MyPa	1-3 HT 0-3	Reipas
03/07/24 Finland Kakkonen Group A	Reipas	5-0 HT 2-0	MyPa
26/04/24 Finland Kakkonen Group A	MyPa	3-1 HT 0-1	Reipas
20/08/21 Finland Kakkonen Group A	MyPa	2-1 HT 1-0	Reipas

Standings · Finland Kakkonen Group A · Kakkonen 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kiffen	13	9	1	3	31	21	28
2	HIFK 2	13	7	3	3	27	15	24
3	HPS	13	7	2	4	28	21	23
4	PEPO	13	6	4	3	20	18	22
5	Atlantis	13	6	1	6	40	31	19
6	PPJ	13	4	7	2	25	19	19
7	Reipas	13	5	2	6	26	25	17
8	Puiu	13	4	2	7	18	26	14
9	MyPa	13	3	2	8	14	28	11
10	Union Plaani	13	1	2	10	14	39	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Reipas	MyPa
Puiu	1-4 L	1-1 D
HIFK 2	1-1 D	0-4 L
HPS	2-3 L	2-5 L
Kiffen	2-3 L	1-3 L
Union Plaani	4-2 W	2-0 W
PEPO	1-2 L	0-0 D
Atlantis	1-0 W	1-2 L
PPJ	0-3 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	1 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Reipas (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Reipas

WWLWLWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Puiu Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-4	1-4	5	3	L
12/07	HIFK 2 Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
04/07	HPS Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-2	2-3	3	4	L
27/06	Kiffen Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-2	2-3	6	4	L
13/06	Union Plaani Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-1	4-2	–	–	W
04/06	PEPO Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-0	1-2	4	3	L
31/05	Atlantis Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
22/05	PPJ Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-2	0-3	2	3	L
16/05	MyPa Finland Kakkonen Group A	4-0	5-0	8	6	W
08/05	Puiu Finland Kakkonen Group A	3-0	3-1	5	5	W

MyPa

LLLDLDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	HPS Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-2	2-5	7	5	L
11/07	Union Plaani Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-0	2-0	3	8	W
04/07	HIFK 2 Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	0-4	6	7	L
27/06	Atlantis Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-1	1-2	7	6	L
13/06	Puiu Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	1-1	2	4	D
06/06	PPJ Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-1	1-3	5	9	L
29/05	PEPO Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
26/05	HJK Helsinki Finland Cup	0-6	1-11	1	1	L
23/05	Kiffen Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	1-3	5	5	L
16/05	Reipas Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-4	0-5	2	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Reipas vs MyPa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Reipas win (67%). Probabilities: Reipas 67%, draw 17%, MyPa 15%.

How many goals are expected in Reipas vs MyPa?

The model expects 4.29 goals (Reipas 2.9 · MyPa 1.4), with a 52% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Reipas vs MyPa?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.