Football · Finland Kakkonen Group A · 24/07, 18:00

Prediction: PEPO vs Puiu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

PEPO2.01

Puiu1.16

1X2

57% 23% 21%

PEPO Draw Puiu

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

PEPO 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Puiu 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

PEPO 2–1–1 Puiu (4 last)

Puiu1-2PEPO
Puiu1-1PEPO
Puiu4-0PEPO

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · PEPO 1494 · Puiu 1443

	PEPO	Draw	Puiu
Our model	56%	23%	21%
Market	57%	22%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours PEPO (rating 1494 vs 1443).
H2H favours PEPO: 2-1-1.
High corners: 12.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	PEPO	Puiu
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.7	1.1 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.9 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 7.9	3.2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.10

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.15

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
10:02 +2’	1.57	4.10	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · PEPO 2–1–1 Puiu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Finland Kakkonen Group A	Puiu	1-2 HT 1-2	PEPO
21/09/25 Finland Kakkonen Group A	Puiu	1-1 HT 0-1	PEPO
09/08/25 Finland Kakkonen Group A	Puiu	4-0 HT 1-0	PEPO
08/06/25 Finland Kakkonen Group A	PEPO	1-0 HT 1-0	Puiu

Standings · Finland Kakkonen Group A · Kakkonen 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kiffen	13	9	1	3	31	21	28
2	HIFK 2	13	7	3	3	27	15	24
3	HPS	13	7	2	4	28	21	23
4	PEPO	13	6	4	3	20	18	22
5	Atlantis	13	6	1	6	40	31	19
6	PPJ	13	4	7	2	25	19	19
7	Reipas	13	5	2	6	26	25	17
8	Puiu	13	4	2	7	18	26	14
9	MyPa	13	3	2	8	14	28	11
10	Union Plaani	13	1	2	10	14	39	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	PEPO	Puiu
Kiffen	0-2 L	0-2 L
HPS	2-0 W	0-2 L
Atlantis	1-5 L	0-8 L
PPJ	2-2 D	4-1 W
HIFK 2	1-2 L	0-2 L
Reipas	2-1 W	4-1 W
MyPa	0-0 D	1-1 D
Union Plaani	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: PEPO (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

PEPO

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Kiffen Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	0-2	11	4	L
11/07	HPS Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-0	2-0	11	4	W
04/07	Atlantis Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-3	1-5	4	5	L
27/06	PPJ Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
13/06	HIFK 2 Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	1-2	9	5	L
04/06	Reipas Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	2-1	7	3	W
29/05	MyPa Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	0-0	10	4	D
23/05	Union Plaani Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	1-1	11	4	D
16/05	Puiu Finland Kakkonen Group A	2-1	2-1	–	–	W
12/05	SJK Finland Cup	0-2	0-3	3	4	L

Puiu

LLLLLDLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Reipas Finland Kakkonen Group A	4-1	4-1	3	3	W
11/07	PPJ Finland Kakkonen Group A	2-0	4-1	5	4	W
04/07	Union Plaani Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-1	1-2	7	4	L
27/06	HPS Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	0-2	8	3	L
13/06	MyPa Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
08/06	Kiffen Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-2	0-2	6	5	L
29/05	HIFK 2 Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	0-2	2	8	L
22/05	Atlantis Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-6	0-8	2	6	L
16/05	PEPO Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
13/05	IFK Mariehamn Finland Cup	0-1	0-3	6	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in PEPO vs Puiu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a PEPO win (57%). Probabilities: PEPO 57%, draw 23%, Puiu 21%.

How many goals are expected in PEPO vs Puiu?

The model expects 3.17 goals (PEPO 2.01 · Puiu 1.16), with a 56% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in PEPO vs Puiu?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.