Football · Finland Kakkonen Group A · 24/07, 18:00

Prediction: PPJ vs Union Plaani

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.03Total

PPJ2.74

Union Plaani1.29

1X2

67% 18% 15%

PPJ Draw Union Plaani

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

PPJ 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DDWDWDDLLW

Union Plaani 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LDDLLLLWLL

Head-to-head

PPJ 0–1–0 Union Plaani (1 last)

Union Plaani2-2PPJ

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · PPJ 1513 · Union Plaani 1409

	PPJ	Draw	Union Plaani
Our model	67%	18%	15%
Market	67%	18%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 4.03 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours PPJ (rating 1513 vs 1409).
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	PPJ	Union Plaani
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.8	1.1 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1	0.5 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.2	2.4 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.00

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.85

2 (+1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 42.00

Under 41.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.85

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
10:00 +3’	1.33	5.00	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · PPJ 0–1–0 Union Plaani

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Finland Kakkonen Group A	Union Plaani	2-2 HT 1-0	PPJ

Standings · Finland Kakkonen Group A · Kakkonen 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kiffen	13	9	1	3	31	21	28
2	HIFK 2	13	7	3	3	27	15	24
3	HPS	13	7	2	4	28	21	23
4	PEPO	13	6	4	3	20	18	22
5	Atlantis	13	6	1	6	40	31	19
6	PPJ	13	4	7	2	25	19	19
7	Reipas	13	5	2	6	26	25	17
8	Puiu	13	4	2	7	18	26	14
9	MyPa	13	3	2	8	14	28	11
10	Union Plaani	13	1	2	10	14	39	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	PPJ	Union Plaani
HIFK 2	2-1 W	0-3 L
Puiu	1-4 L	2-1 W
Kiffen	1-2 L	0-2 L
PEPO	2-2 D	1-1 D
Atlantis	3-3 D	3-6 L
MyPa	3-1 W	0-2 L
HPS	2-2 D	0-2 L
Reipas	3-0 W	2-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: PPJ (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

PPJ

DDWDWDDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/07	HIFK 2 Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
11/07	Puiu Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-2	1-4	3	4	L
02/07	Kiffen Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
27/06	PEPO Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-1	2-2	2	5	D
11/06	Atlantis Finland Kakkonen Group A	3-2	3-3	6	5	D
06/06	MyPa Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-1	3-1	3	9	W
31/05	HPS Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-0	2-2	4	5	D
22/05	Reipas Finland Kakkonen Group A	2-0	3-0	10	3	W
16/05	Union Plaani Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	2-2	8	4	D
09/05	HIFK 2 Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-1	1-1	7	3	D

Union Plaani

LDDLLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Atlantis Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-4	3-6	8	3	L
11/07	MyPa Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	0-2	5	8	L
04/07	Puiu Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-1	2-1	12	4	W
27/06	HIFK 2 Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
13/06	Reipas Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-1	2-4	–	–	L
06/06	HPS Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	0-2	9	4	L
29/05	Kiffen Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-2	0-2	4	4	L
23/05	PEPO Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
16/05	PPJ Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-0	2-2	6	4	D
08/05	Atlantis Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-3	1-5	1	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in PPJ vs Union Plaani?

According to our model, the most likely result is a PPJ win (67%). Probabilities: PPJ 67%, draw 18%, Union Plaani 15%.

How many goals are expected in PPJ vs Union Plaani?

The model expects 4.03 goals (PPJ 2.74 · Union Plaani 1.29), with a 53% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in PPJ vs Union Plaani?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.