Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · 20/08, 21:00

Prediction: Atletico FC Guayaquil vs Cumbaya

Team pages: Atletico FC Guayaquil · Cumbaya

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.84Total

Atletico FC Guayaquil1.22

Cumbaya0.62

1X2

51% 30% 19%

Atletico FC Guayaquil Draw Cumbaya

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 56% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico FC Guayaquil 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWDWDWLD

Cumbaya 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

WDLWWDDDDD

Head-to-head

Atletico FC Guayaquil 0–1–0 Cumbaya (1 last)

Cumbaya2-2Atletico FC Guayaquil

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico FC Guayaquil 1514 · Cumbaya 1522

	Atletico FC Guayaquil	Draw	Cumbaya
Our model	50%	33%	18%
Market	52%	28%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 1.84 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico FC Guayaquil	Cumbaya
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.5	1 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/67/11%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.1	2.1 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	4.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.20

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.02

2 (+0.75)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 22.00

Under 21.80

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 1.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.73▼	Bet365 1.73
X	3.00 → 3.20▲	Bet365 3.20
2	3.80 → 4.50▲	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
22:37 +1’	1.90	3.00	3.80
02:37 +4’	1.73▼	3.20▲	4.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico FC Guayaquil 0–1–0 Cumbaya

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/03/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	Cumbaya	2-2 HT 2-1	Atletico FC Guayaquil

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente Juniors	21	10	8	3	27	15	38
2	Club 9 de Octubre	21	9	9	3	22	14	36
3	Atletico FC Guayaquil	21	8	11	2	22	14	35
4	CD Cuenca Jrs	21	9	7	5	20	20	34
5	Vinotinto Ecuador	21	8	6	7	25	17	30
6	San Antonio FC Cotacachi	21	7	9	5	24	21	30
7	Cumbaya	21	5	11	5	22	19	26
8	CD Vargas Torres	21	6	9	6	17	16	24
9	LDU Portoviejo	21	6	6	9	15	22	24
10	Gualaceo SC	21	6	8	7	16	16	20
11	22 de Julio	21	4	3	14	10	29	9
12	El Nacional	21	2	5	14	14	31	8

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico FC Guayaquil	Cumbaya
Gualaceo SC	0-0 D	0-1 L
CD Vargas Torres	0-1 L	3-3 D
LDU Portoviejo	1-0 W	0-0 D
CD Cuenca Jrs	0-0 D	0-0 D
San Antonio FC Cotacachi	4-1 W	0-0 D
Independiente Juniors	0-0 D	1-0 W
El Nacional	3-0 W	1-0 W
22 de Julio	1-0 W	4-0 W
Club 9 de Octubre	0-0 D	0-0 D
Vinotinto Ecuador	0-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 4 D 2 L	3 W 6 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico FC Guayaquil

LDWWDWDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
06/08	CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
30/07	LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
24/07	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
16/07	San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-1	4-1	2	6	W
11/07	Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
02/07	El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	2-0	3-0	9	2	W
09/06	22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/06	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
31/05	Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-2	0-3	6	2	L

Cumbaya

WDLWWDDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/08	CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	2-1	3-3	3	4	D
08/08	LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	4	8	D
30/07	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
22/07	San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
16/07	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
08/07	El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
02/07	22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
10/06	Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
04/06	Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
30/05	Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	1-0	1	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico FC Guayaquil vs Cumbaya?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico FC Guayaquil win (51%). Probabilities: Atletico FC Guayaquil 51%, draw 30%, Cumbaya 19%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico FC Guayaquil vs Cumbaya?

The model expects 1.84 goals (Atletico FC Guayaquil 1.22 · Cumbaya 0.62), with a 56% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico FC Guayaquil vs Cumbaya?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.