Football · Finland Kakkonen Group C · 15/08, 15:30

Prediction: VPS-J vs JS Hercules

Team pages: VPS-J · JS Hercules

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.63Total

VPS-J3.31

JS Hercules1.31

1X2

76% 13% 11%

VPS-J Draw JS Hercules

Markets

Over 4.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

3-1

Recent form · 10 last

VPS-J 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DWLWWLWLWL

JS Hercules 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLDDWWLD

Head-to-head

VPS-J 3–2 JS Hercules (5 last)

JS Hercules1-5VPS-J
VPS-J8-0JS Hercules
JS Hercules1-2VPS-J
JS Hercules5-1VPS-J
VPS-J1-3JS Hercules

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · VPS-J 1522 · JS Hercules 1464

	VPS-J	Draw	JS Hercules
Our model	75%	14%	11%
Market	76%	13%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 4.63 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours VPS-J (rating 1522 vs 1464).
H2H favours VPS-J: 3-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	VPS-J	JS Hercules
Goals for / against (FT)	3.1 / 1.8	1.4 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.9	0.7 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5.5	1.3 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.18

X7.00

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)1.82

2 (+2.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.82

Under 4.51.98

Diff.: 0 · xG: 4.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.18 → 1.20▲	Bet365 1.20
X	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
2	8.00 → 7.50▼	Pinn 7.90 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
09:47 +5’	1.18	7.00	8.00
19:30 +8’	1.20▲	7.00	7.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:28 +11’	1.20	6.71	7.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · VPS-J 3–0–2 JS Hercules

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/06/26 Finland Kakkonen Group C	JS Hercules	1-5 HT 0-1	VPS-J
13/07/25 Finland Kakkonen Group C	VPS-J	8-0 HT 3-0	JS Hercules
11/05/25 Finland Kakkonen Group C	JS Hercules	1-2 HT 1-2	VPS-J
20/07/19 Finland Kakkonen Group C	JS Hercules	5-1 HT 3-0	VPS-J
12/05/19 Finland Kakkonen Group C	VPS-J	1-3 HT 0-3	JS Hercules

Standings · Finland Kakkonen Group C · Kakkonen 2026, Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Huima/Urho	16	9	3	4	41	23	30
2	GBK	16	9	1	6	38	31	28
3	JBK	16	8	1	7	32	24	25
4	FF Jaro II	16	8	1	7	30	45	25
5	VPS-J	16	6	4	6	43	31	22
6	Narpes Kraft	16	7	1	8	47	40	22
7	TP-47	16	5	5	6	24	29	20
8	FC Vaajakoski	16	6	2	8	31	39	20
9	JS Hercules	16	5	3	8	27	38	18
10	SJK Akatemia II	16	5	3	8	25	38	18

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	VPS-J	JS Hercules
FC Vaajakoski	2-3 L	2-2 D
FF Jaro II	5-0 W	1-2 L
JBK	0-2 L	5-3 W
SJK Akatemia II	6-2 W	2-2 D
Narpes Kraft	2-3 L	2-3 L
Huima/Urho	3-1 W	0-0 D
TP-47	3-0 W	1-0 W
GBK	3-4 L	0-7 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: VPS-J (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

VPS-J

DWLWWLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	FC Vaajakoski Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-2	2-3	2	4	L
03/08	FF Jaro II Finland Kakkonen Group C	2-0	5-0	4	0	W
25/07	JBK Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-1	0-2	8	9	L
19/07	SJK Akatemia II Finland Kakkonen Group C	3-2	6-2	6	7	W
12/07	Narpes Kraft Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-2	2-3	8	4	L
05/07	Huima/Urho Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-1	3-1	6	4	W
27/06	TP-47 Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-0	3-0	4	2	W
14/06	GBK Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-1	3-4	4	1	L
05/06	JS Hercules Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-0	5-1	5	4	W
27/05	FC Vaajakoski Finland Kakkonen Group C	2-0	2-2	8	3	D

JS Hercules

LLLLDDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	SJK Akatemia II Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-1	2-2	4	2	D
01/08	Narpes Kraft Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-2	2-3	6	5	L
23/07	TP-47 Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
18/07	JBK Finland Kakkonen Group C	3-1	5-3	4	3	W
11/07	Huima/Urho Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
04/07	FC Vaajakoski Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-0	2-2	1	2	D
27/06	GBK Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-5	0-7	4	2	L
14/06	FF Jaro II Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
05/06	VPS-J Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-1	1-5	1	4	L
27/05	SJK Akatemia II Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-2	0-3	8	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in VPS-J vs JS Hercules?

According to our model, the most likely result is a VPS-J win (76%). Probabilities: VPS-J 76%, draw 13%, JS Hercules 11%.

How many goals are expected in VPS-J vs JS Hercules?

The model expects 4.63 goals (VPS-J 3.31 · JS Hercules 1.31), with a 51% chance of over 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in VPS-J vs JS Hercules?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.