Football · Finland Kakkonen Group C · 22/08, 14:00

Prediction: GBK vs VPS-J

Team pages: GBK · VPS-J

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.37Total

GBK2.13

VPS-J2.24

1X2

38% 21% 41%

GBK Draw VPS-J

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

2-2

Recent form · 10 last

GBK 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWDWLD

VPS-J 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWLWLW

Head-to-head

GBK 4–2 VPS-J (6 last)

VPS-J3-4GBK
GBK3-0VPS-J
VPS-J3-0GBK
VPS-J0-1GBK
GBK0-3VPS-J
VPS-J0-8GBK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · GBK 1566 · VPS-J 1525

	GBK	Draw	VPS-J
Our model	38%	21%	41%
Market	37%	21%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 4.37 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours GBK (rating 1566 vs 1525).
H2H favours GBK: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	GBK	VPS-J
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 1.7	3.2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	1.2 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.6	2.9 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.4	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.38

X4.20

22.15

Line ⓘ

Over 41.85

Under 41.91

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 4.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 3.13 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
10:36 +6’	2.38	4.20	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:27 +11’	2.45	4.08	2.22
10:41	1.84▼	4.14▲	3.13▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · GBK 4–0–2 VPS-J

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/06/26 Finland Kakkonen Group C	VPS-J	3-4 HT 1-1	GBK
21/09/25 Finland Kakkonen Group C	GBK	3-0 HT 1-0	VPS-J
27/06/25 Finland Kakkonen Group C	VPS-J	3-0 HT 2-0	GBK
07/05/25 Finland Cup	VPS-J	0-1 HT 0-1	GBK
21/04/25 Finland Kakkonen Group C	GBK	0-3 HT 0-1	VPS-J
28/07/19 Finland Kakkonen Group C	VPS-J	0-8 HT 0-5	GBK

Standings · Finland Kakkonen Group C · Kakkonen 2026, Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Huima/Urho	17	10	3	4	47	25	33
2	GBK	17	9	2	6	39	32	29
3	JBK	17	9	1	7	36	24	28
4	VPS-J	17	7	4	6	46	32	25
5	FF Jaro II	17	8	1	8	32	51	25
6	Narpes Kraft	17	7	2	8	49	42	23
7	FC Vaajakoski	17	6	3	8	32	40	21
8	TP-47	17	5	5	7	24	33	20
9	SJK Akatemia II	17	5	4	8	27	40	19
10	JS Hercules	17	5	3	9	28	41	18

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	GBK	VPS-J
FC Vaajakoski	1-1 D	2-3 L
Huima/Urho	0-3 L	3-1 W
SJK Akatemia II	4-2 W	6-2 W
FF Jaro II	1-1 D	5-0 W
Narpes Kraft	6-2 W	2-3 L
TP-47	4-3 W	3-0 W
JS Hercules	7-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	5 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: VPS-J (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

GBK

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	FC Vaajakoski Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
08/08	Huima/Urho Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-1	0-3	5	5	L
01/08	SJK Akatemia II Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-1	4-2	4	1	W
22/07	FF Jaro II Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
15/07	Narpes Kraft Finland Kakkonen Group C	2-2	6-2	4	4	W
04/07	TP-47 Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-2	4-3	–	–	W
27/06	JS Hercules Finland Kakkonen Group C	5-0	7-0	6	2	W
14/06	VPS-J Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-1	4-3	3	1	W
06/06	FC Vaajakoski Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
29/05	Huima/Urho Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-0	2-1	8	5	W

VPS-J

WLWWLWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	JS Hercules Finland Kakkonen Group C	2-0	3-1	7	6	W
08/08	FC Vaajakoski Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-2	2-3	2	4	L
03/08	FF Jaro II Finland Kakkonen Group C	2-0	5-0	4	0	W
25/07	JBK Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-1	0-2	8	9	L
19/07	SJK Akatemia II Finland Kakkonen Group C	3-2	6-2	6	7	W
12/07	Narpes Kraft Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-2	2-3	8	4	L
05/07	Huima/Urho Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-1	3-1	6	4	W
27/06	TP-47 Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-0	3-0	4	2	W
14/06	GBK Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-1	3-4	4	1	L
05/06	JS Hercules Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-0	5-1	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in GBK vs VPS-J?

According to our model, the most likely result is an VPS-J win (41%). Probabilities: GBK 38%, draw 21%, VPS-J 41%.

How many goals are expected in GBK vs VPS-J?

The model expects 4.37 goals (GBK 2.13 · VPS-J 2.24), with a 53% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in GBK vs VPS-J?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.