Football · Finland Kakkonen Group C · 22/08, 14:00

Prediction: TP-47 vs FC Vaajakoski

Team pages: TP-47 · FC Vaajakoski

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.44Total

TP-471.82

FC Vaajakoski1.63

1X2

42% 23% 34%

TP-47 Draw FC Vaajakoski

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

TP-47 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

DLLLDLLLWL

FC Vaajakoski 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDWLWLWD

Head-to-head

TP-47 0–3 FC Vaajakoski (3 last)

FC Vaajakoski3-2TP-47
FC Vaajakoski2-0TP-47
TP-470-1FC Vaajakoski

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TP-47 1426 · FC Vaajakoski 1517

	TP-47	Draw	FC Vaajakoski
Our model	42%	24%	34%
Market	42%	23%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.44 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Vaajakoski (rating 1426 vs 1517).
H2H favours FC Vaajakoski: 3-0-0.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	TP-47	FC Vaajakoski
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.3	1.8 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.9 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.9	3.5 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.3	3.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.15

X4.00

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.90

Under 3.751.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.25 ★
2	2.63 → 2.63	Pinn 2.68

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.6% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
08:32 +6’	2.15	4.00	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:27 +10’	1.97	4.27	2.74
10:41	2.01▲	4.25▼	2.68▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · TP-47 0–0–3 FC Vaajakoski

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/06/26 Finland Kakkonen Group C	FC Vaajakoski	3-2 HT 2-1	TP-47
07/10/23 Finland Kakkonen Group C	FC Vaajakoski	2-0 HT 0-0	TP-47
22/07/23 Finland Kakkonen Group C	TP-47	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Vaajakoski

Standings · Finland Kakkonen Group C · Kakkonen 2026, Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Huima/Urho	17	10	3	4	47	25	33
2	GBK	17	9	2	6	39	32	29
3	JBK	17	9	1	7	36	24	28
4	VPS-J	17	7	4	6	46	32	25
5	FF Jaro II	17	8	1	8	32	51	25
6	Narpes Kraft	17	7	2	8	49	42	23
7	FC Vaajakoski	17	6	3	8	32	40	21
8	TP-47	17	5	5	7	24	33	20
9	SJK Akatemia II	17	5	4	8	27	40	19
10	JS Hercules	17	5	3	9	28	41	18

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TP-47	FC Vaajakoski
JBK	0-4 L	0-4 L
Narpes Kraft	2-1 W	3-2 W
Huima/Urho	0-4 L	0-1 L
JS Hercules	0-1 L	2-2 D
FF Jaro II	0-2 L	5-2 W
SJK Akatemia II	0-0 D	0-3 L
GBK	3-4 L	1-1 D
VPS-J	0-3 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 6 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Vaajakoski (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TP-47

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	JBK Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-2	0-4	7	7	L
08/08	Narpes Kraft Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
01/08	Huima/Urho Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-0	0-4	4	4	L
23/07	JS Hercules Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
18/07	FF Jaro II Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-0	0-2	3	1	L
12/07	SJK Akatemia II Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-0	0-0	0	4	D
04/07	GBK Finland Kakkonen Group C	2-1	3-4	–	–	L
27/06	VPS-J Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-1	0-3	6	2	L
14/06	FC Vaajakoski Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-2	2-3	1	7	L
06/06	JBK Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-1	1-1	4	5	D

FC Vaajakoski

WWLDWLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	GBK Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-0	1-1	8	5	D
08/08	VPS-J Finland Kakkonen Group C	2-1	3-2	6	4	W
01/08	JBK Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-3	0-4	5	3	L
26/07	Narpes Kraft Finland Kakkonen Group C	2-2	3-2	6	4	W
17/07	Huima/Urho Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
12/07	FF Jaro II Finland Kakkonen Group C	3-1	5-2	6	3	W
04/07	JS Hercules Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-1	2-2	5	2	D
30/06	SJK Akatemia II Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-2	0-3	6	3	L
14/06	TP-47 Finland Kakkonen Group C	2-1	3-2	13	7	W
06/06	GBK Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-0	1-0	10	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TP-47 vs FC Vaajakoski?

According to our model, the most likely result is a TP-47 win (42%). Probabilities: TP-47 42%, draw 23%, FC Vaajakoski 34%.

How many goals are expected in TP-47 vs FC Vaajakoski?

The model expects 3.44 goals (TP-47 1.82 · FC Vaajakoski 1.63), with a 55% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in TP-47 vs FC Vaajakoski?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.