Football · Finland Kakkonen Group C · 22/08, 14:00

Prediction: JS Hercules vs FF Jaro II

Team pages: JS Hercules · FF Jaro II

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.41Total

JS Hercules2.41

FF Jaro II2

1X2

47% 21% 32%

JS Hercules Draw FF Jaro II

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

JS Hercules 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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FF Jaro II 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

JS Hercules 0–1 FF Jaro II (1 last)

FF Jaro II2-1JS Hercules

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JS Hercules 1463 · FF Jaro II 1436

	JS Hercules	Draw	FF Jaro II
Our model	47%	20%	32%
Market	47%	21%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 4.41 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JS Hercules	FF Jaro II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.7	1.3 / 3.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.2	0.7 / 1.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.1	1.8 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	2.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.90

X4.20

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.98

Under 4.251.82

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 4.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 1.90▼	Bet365 1.90
X	4.10 → 4.20▲	Pinn 4.51
2	2.25 → 2.80▲	Pinn 3.13 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 13.3%

Time*	1	X	2
08:37 +2’	2.30	4.10	2.25
10:36 +6’	1.90▼	4.20▲	2.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:27 +13’	2.05	4.42	2.55
10:41 +1’	1.69▼	4.51▲	3.13▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JS Hercules 0–0–1 FF Jaro II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/06/26 Finland Kakkonen Group C	FF Jaro II	2-1 HT 0-1	JS Hercules

Standings · Finland Kakkonen Group C · Kakkonen 2026, Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Huima/Urho	17	10	3	4	47	25	33
2	GBK	17	9	2	6	39	32	29
3	JBK	17	9	1	7	36	24	28
4	VPS-J	17	7	4	6	46	32	25
5	FF Jaro II	17	8	1	8	32	51	25
6	Narpes Kraft	17	7	2	8	49	42	23
7	FC Vaajakoski	17	6	3	8	32	40	21
8	TP-47	17	5	5	7	24	33	20
9	SJK Akatemia II	17	5	4	8	27	40	19
10	JS Hercules	17	5	3	9	28	41	18

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JS Hercules	FF Jaro II
VPS-J	1-3 L	0-5 L
SJK Akatemia II	2-2 D	2-3 L
Narpes Kraft	2-3 L	0-8 L
TP-47	1-0 W	2-0 W
JBK	5-3 W	1-3 L
Huima/Urho	0-0 D	2-6 L
FC Vaajakoski	2-2 D	2-5 L
GBK	0-7 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: JS Hercules (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JS Hercules

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	VPS-J Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-2	1-3	9	6	L
09/08	SJK Akatemia II Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-1	2-2	4	2	D
01/08	Narpes Kraft Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-2	2-3	6	5	L
23/07	TP-47 Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
18/07	JBK Finland Kakkonen Group C	3-1	5-3	4	3	W
11/07	Huima/Urho Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
04/07	FC Vaajakoski Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-0	2-2	1	2	D
27/06	GBK Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-5	0-7	4	2	L
14/06	FF Jaro II Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
05/06	VPS-J Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-1	1-5	1	4	L

FF Jaro II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Huima/Urho Finland Kakkonen Group C	2-2	2-6	1	2	L
07/08	JBK Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-2	1-3	2	5	L
03/08	VPS-J Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-2	0-5	3	0	L
22/07	GBK Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
18/07	TP-47 Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-0	2-0	2	1	W
12/07	FC Vaajakoski Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-3	2-5	4	3	L
08/07	SJK Akatemia II Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-2	2-3	7	6	L
04/07	Narpes Kraft Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-4	0-8	6	1	L
14/06	JS Hercules Finland Kakkonen Group C	0-1	2-1	7	4	W
06/06	Huima/Urho Finland Kakkonen Group C	1-3	1-7	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JS Hercules vs FF Jaro II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a JS Hercules win (47%). Probabilities: JS Hercules 47%, draw 21%, FF Jaro II 32%.

How many goals are expected in JS Hercules vs FF Jaro II?

The model expects 4.41 goals (JS Hercules 2.41 · FF Jaro II 2), with a 51% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in JS Hercules vs FF Jaro II?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.