Football · Finland Kakkonen Group A · 31/07, 18:00

Prediction: Union Plaani vs PEPO

Team pages: Union Plaani · PEPO

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

Union Plaani1.26

PEPO1.97

1X2

24% 22% 54%

Union Plaani Draw PEPO

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Union Plaani 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DDLLLLWLLW

PEPO 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDDWLDLWLW

Head-to-head

Union Plaani 0–1–0 PEPO (1 last)

PEPO1-1Union Plaani

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Plaani 1440 · PEPO 1512

	Union Plaani	Draw	PEPO
Our model	23%	24%	53%
Market	25%	20%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours PEPO (rating 1440 vs 1512).
High corners: 14.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Plaani	PEPO
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.3	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.1	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 6.3	3.4 / 8.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.60

X4.50

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.80

2 (-1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 6 moves · last 07:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 3.60▼	Pinn 4.12 ★
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.53 → 1.65▲	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (6)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
04:07 +2’	4.20	4.50	1.53
07:06 +1’	3.90▼	4.50	1.57▲
14:08 +2’	4.00▲	4.50	1.57
01:08 +5’	3.80▼	4.50	1.60▲
06:03 +1’	3.70▼	4.33▼	1.65▲
06:59 +4’	3.60▼	4.50▲	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:24 +1’	4.10	4.12	1.61
07:03	4.10	4.15▲	1.61▼
09:02 +1’	4.12▲	4.23▲	1.59▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Plaani 0–1–0 PEPO

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Finland Kakkonen Group A	PEPO	1-1 HT 0-1	Union Plaani

Standings · Finland Kakkonen Group A · Kakkonen 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kiffen	14	9	2	3	32	22	29
2	HIFK 2	14	7	4	3	28	16	25
3	PEPO	14	7	4	3	23	20	25
4	HPS	14	7	2	5	31	26	23
5	Atlantis	14	7	1	6	45	34	22
6	Reipas	14	6	2	6	30	27	20
7	PPJ	14	4	7	3	25	20	19
8	Puiu	14	4	2	8	20	29	14
9	MyPa	14	3	2	9	16	32	11
10	Union Plaani	14	2	2	10	15	39	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Plaani	PEPO
PPJ	1-0 W	2-2 D
Atlantis	3-6 L	1-5 L
MyPa	0-2 L	0-0 D
Puiu	2-1 W	3-2 W
HIFK 2	0-3 L	1-2 L
Reipas	2-4 L	2-1 W
HPS	0-2 L	2-0 W
Kiffen	0-2 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 6 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: PEPO (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Plaani

DDLLLLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	PPJ Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
18/07	Atlantis Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-4	3-6	8	3	L
11/07	MyPa Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	0-2	5	8	L
04/07	Puiu Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-1	2-1	12	4	W
27/06	HIFK 2 Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
13/06	Reipas Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-1	2-4	–	–	L
06/06	HPS Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	0-2	9	4	L
29/05	Kiffen Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-2	0-2	4	4	L
23/05	PEPO Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
16/05	PPJ Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-0	2-2	6	4	D

PEPO

WDDWLDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Puiu Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-2	3-2	6	5	W
18/07	Kiffen Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	0-2	11	4	L
11/07	HPS Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-0	2-0	11	4	W
04/07	Atlantis Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-3	1-5	4	5	L
27/06	PPJ Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
13/06	HIFK 2 Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	1-2	9	5	L
04/06	Reipas Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	2-1	7	3	W
29/05	MyPa Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	0-0	10	4	D
23/05	Union Plaani Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	1-1	11	4	D
16/05	Puiu Finland Kakkonen Group A	2-1	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Plaani vs PEPO?

According to our model, the most likely result is an PEPO win (54%). Probabilities: Union Plaani 24%, draw 22%, PEPO 54%.

How many goals are expected in Union Plaani vs PEPO?

The model expects 3.23 goals (Union Plaani 1.26 · PEPO 1.97), with a 55% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Plaani vs PEPO?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.