Football · Finland Kakkonen Group A · 07/08, 18:00

Prediction: PPJ vs HPS

Team pages: PPJ · HPS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.9Total

PPJ2.21

HPS1.69

1X2

49% 22% 29%

PPJ Draw HPS

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

PPJ 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDWDDLLWLL

HPS 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLWWLWLD

Head-to-head

PPJ 0–2–3 HPS (5 last)

HPS2-2PPJ
PPJ1-2HPS
HPS1-0PPJ
PPJ1-1HPS
HPS1-0PPJ

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · PPJ 1482 · HPS 1522

	PPJ	Draw	HPS
Our model	49%	22%	29%
Market	49%	22%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.9 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HPS (rating 1482 vs 1522).
H2H favours HPS: 3-2-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	PPJ	HPS
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.8	2.5 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5	2.7 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0	5.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.83

X4.00

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
10:04 +3’	1.83	4.00	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · PPJ 0–2–3 HPS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Finland Kakkonen Group A	HPS	2-2 HT 0-1	PPJ
01/08/25 Finland Kakkonen Group B	PPJ	1-2 HT 0-0	HPS
30/05/25 Finland Kakkonen Group B	HPS	1-0 HT 0-0	PPJ
08/10/21 Finland Kolmonen	PPJ	1-1 HT 0-1	HPS
11/06/21 Finland Kolmonen	HPS	1-0 HT 0-0	PPJ

Standings · Finland Kakkonen Group A · Kakkonen 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kiffen	15	9	3	3	32	22	30
2	PEPO	15	8	4	3	25	20	28
3	HIFK 2	15	7	5	3	33	21	26
4	HPS	15	7	3	5	36	31	24
5	Atlantis	15	7	2	6	47	36	23
6	Reipas	15	7	2	6	32	28	23
7	PPJ	15	4	7	4	26	22	19
8	Puiu	15	4	3	8	22	31	15
9	MyPa	15	3	3	9	16	32	12
10	Union Plaani	15	2	2	11	15	41	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	PPJ	HPS
Reipas	1-2 L	3-2 W
Union Plaani	0-1 L	2-0 W
HIFK 2	2-1 W	5-5 D
Puiu	1-4 L	2-0 W
Kiffen	1-2 L	1-2 L
PEPO	2-2 D	0-2 L
Atlantis	3-3 D	3-5 L
MyPa	3-1 W	5-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: HPS (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

PPJ

WDWDDLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Reipas Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-2	1-2	7	2	L
24/07	Union Plaani Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
16/07	HIFK 2 Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
11/07	Puiu Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-2	1-4	3	4	L
02/07	Kiffen Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
27/06	PEPO Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-1	2-2	2	5	D
11/06	Atlantis Finland Kakkonen Group A	3-2	3-3	6	5	D
06/06	MyPa Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-1	3-1	3	9	W
31/05	HPS Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-0	2-2	4	5	D
22/05	Reipas Finland Kakkonen Group A	2-0	3-0	10	3	W

HPS

WDWLWWLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	HIFK 2 Finland Kakkonen Group A	2-3	5-5	6	13	D
25/07	Atlantis Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-3	3-5	12	3	L
18/07	MyPa Finland Kakkonen Group A	2-1	5-2	9	5	W
11/07	PEPO Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
04/07	Reipas Finland Kakkonen Group A	2-0	3-2	2	4	W
27/06	Puiu Finland Kakkonen Group A	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
12/06	Kiffen Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	1-2	2	5	L
06/06	Union Plaani Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	2-0	8	4	W
31/05	PPJ Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-1	2-2	3	5	D
22/05	HIFK 2 Finland Kakkonen Group A	0-0	2-0	7	10	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in PPJ vs HPS?

According to our model, the most likely result is a PPJ win (49%). Probabilities: PPJ 49%, draw 22%, HPS 29%.

How many goals are expected in PPJ vs HPS?

The model expects 3.9 goals (PPJ 2.21 · HPS 1.69), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in PPJ vs HPS?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.