Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · 20/08, 22:30
Prediction: Independiente Juniors vs El Nacional
Team pages: Independiente Juniors · El Nacional
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.63Total
Independiente Juniors2.1
El Nacional0.53
1X2
Independiente Juniors
Draw
El Nacional
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Independiente Juniors
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
El Nacional
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Independiente Juniors
2–3–1
El Nacional
(6 last)
- El Nacional0-1Independiente Juniors
- El Nacional1-1Independiente Juniors
- Independiente Juniors4-1El Nacional
- El Nacional2-1Independiente Juniors
- Independiente Juniors0-0El Nacional
- Independiente Juniors1-1El Nacional
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Independiente Juniors 1557 · El Nacional 1445
| Independiente Juniors | Draw | El Nacional | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 73% | 19% | 7% |
| Market | 74% | 17% | 8% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.63 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente Juniors (rating 1557 vs 1445).
- H2H favours Independiente Juniors: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Independiente Juniors | El Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.3 | 0.2 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 11/78/11% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 2.8 | 2 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0 | 4.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Juniors 2–3–1 El Nacional
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | El Nacional | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Independiente Juniors |
| 01/10/22 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | El Nacional | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Independiente Juniors |
| 24/08/22 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Independiente Juniors | 4-1 HT 3-0 | El Nacional |
| 28/07/22 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | El Nacional | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Independiente Juniors |
| 15/03/22 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Independiente Juniors | 0-0 HT 0-0 | El Nacional |
| 13/10/21 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B | Independiente Juniors | 1-1 HT 0-0 | El Nacional |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Juniors | 21 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 38 |
| 2 | Club 9 de Octubre | 21 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 22 | 14 | 36 |
| 3 | Atletico FC Guayaquil | 21 | 8 | 11 | 2 | 22 | 14 | 35 |
| 4 | CD Cuenca Jrs | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 34 |
| 5 | Vinotinto Ecuador | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 17 | 30 |
| 6 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi | 21 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 24 | 21 | 30 |
| 7 | Cumbaya | 21 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 22 | 19 | 26 |
| 8 | CD Vargas Torres | 21 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 16 | 24 |
| 9 | LDU Portoviejo | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 22 | 24 |
| 10 | Gualaceo SC | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 16 | 20 |
| 11 | 22 de Julio | 21 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 29 | 9 |
| 12 | El Nacional | 21 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 14 | 31 | 8 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Independiente Juniors | El Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Club 9 de Octubre | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| 22 de Julio | 2-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Gualaceo SC | 3-2 W | 0-0 D |
| Vinotinto Ecuador | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| LDU Portoviejo | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Atletico FC Guayaquil | 0-0 D | 0-3 L |
| CD Vargas Torres | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| CD Cuenca Jrs | 4-0 W | 1-4 L |
| San Antonio FC Cotacachi | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 3 D 1 L | 2 W 2 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Independiente Juniors (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Independiente Juniors
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 06/08 | 22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 01/08 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 23/07 | Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 17/07 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 11/07 | Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 09/07 | LDU Quito Ecuador Cup |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 03/07 | CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 10/06 | CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
3-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 05/06 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
El Nacional
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 06/08 | Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 31/07 | 22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 24/07 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 15/07 | Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 08/07 | Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 02/07 | Atletico FC Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 11/06 | CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 07/06 | CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
1-3 | 1-4 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 31/05 | LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Independiente Juniors vs El Nacional?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente Juniors win (74%). Probabilities: Independiente Juniors 74%, draw 18%, El Nacional 8%.
How many goals are expected in Independiente Juniors vs El Nacional?
The model expects 2.63 goals (Independiente Juniors 2.1 · El Nacional 0.53), with a 58% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Independiente Juniors vs El Nacional?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.