Football · Brazil Serie A · 28/10, 23:30

Prediction: Fluminense vs Internacional

Team pages: Fluminense · Internacional

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Fluminense1.53

Internacional1.09

1X2

46% 28% 26%

Fluminense Draw Internacional

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Fluminense 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWDWLWWLL

Internacional 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDDLLWLWDL

Head-to-head

Fluminense 3–1–2 Internacional (6 last)

Internacional2-0Fluminense
Fluminense1-0Internacional
Fluminense1-1Internacional
Internacional1-2Fluminense
Internacional0-2Fluminense
Internacional2-0Fluminense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fluminense 1532 · Internacional 1468

	Fluminense	Draw	Internacional
Our model	46%	28%	26%
Market	46%	28%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fluminense (rating 1532 vs 1468).
H2H favours Fluminense: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fluminense	Internacional
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.4	1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.4	1.3 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0	6.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.25

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.05

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +15’	2.00	3.25	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fluminense 3–1–2 Internacional

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Brazil Serie A	Internacional	2-0 HT 1-0	Fluminense
25/10/25 Brazil Serie A	Fluminense	1-0 HT 0-0	Internacional
07/08/25 Copa do Brasil	Fluminense	1-1 HT 0-0	Internacional
31/07/25 Copa do Brasil	Internacional	1-2 HT 1-2	Fluminense
02/06/25 Brazil Serie A	Internacional	0-2 HT 0-1	Fluminense
08/11/24 Brazil Serie A	Internacional	2-0 HT 0-0	Fluminense

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	31	20	7	4	61	25	67
2	Palmeiras	31	19	9	3	54	22	66
3	Athletico Paranaense	31	15	8	8	49	37	53
4	Cruzeiro	31	15	6	10	50	46	51
5	Fluminense	31	14	9	8	49	39	51
6	Atletico Mineiro	31	14	8	9	42	35	50
7	EC Bahia	31	13	10	8	44	39	49
8	Santos	31	12	9	10	48	46	45
9	Sao Paulo	31	12	6	13	36	35	42
10	Bragantino	31	11	8	12	39	36	41
11	Botafogo	31	10	9	12	44	48	39
12	Coritiba	31	10	9	12	38	49	39
13	Vitoria	31	10	7	14	34	45	37
14	Mirassol	31	9	9	13	36	44	36
15	Vasco da Gama	30	9	8	13	36	43	35
16	Corinthians	31	8	9	14	32	39	33
17	Internacional	31	7	11	13	33	40	32
18	Gremio	31	7	10	14	34	44	31
19	Remo	31	5	11	15	34	49	26
20	Chapecoense	30	3	9	18	30	62	18

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fluminense	Internacional
Santos	1-2 L	2-3 L
Corinthians	3-1 W	2-1 W
Atletico Mineiro	1-3 L	0-0 D
Remo	2-1 W	1-1 D
Palmeiras	3-2 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Fluminense (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fluminense

DWWDWLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Santos Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	4	3	L
11/10	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
09/10	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	1-0	4-0	3	1	W
20/09	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-1	1	8	W
12/09	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-3	2	3	L
06/09	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
30/08	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-3	3	4	D
22/08	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	11	2	W
15/08	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-2	5	7	W
09/08	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	7	6	D

Internacional

DDDLLWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-2	2	9	L
11/10	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
08/10	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	3	9	W
20/09	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
12/09	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	2	8	W
06/09	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-3	2-3	7	9	L
31/08	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-3	2-3	3	6	L
22/08	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
18/08	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
09/08	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fluminense vs Internacional?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fluminense win (46%). Probabilities: Fluminense 46%, draw 28%, Internacional 26%.

How many goals are expected in Fluminense vs Internacional?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Fluminense 1.53 · Internacional 1.09), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Internacional?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.