Football · Brazil Serie B · 30/09, 00:30

Prediction: Botafogo SP vs Ponte Preta

Team pages: Botafogo SP · Ponte Preta

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

Botafogo SP2.05

Ponte Preta0.54

1X2

74% 17% 9%

Botafogo SP Draw Ponte Preta

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Botafogo SP 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWWDLLLLLD

Ponte Preta 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

DLDLLLLLLW

Head-to-head

Botafogo SP 1–3–2 Ponte Preta (6 last)

Ponte Preta0-0Botafogo SP
Ponte Preta0-0Botafogo SP
Ponte Preta1-0Botafogo SP
Botafogo SP2-0Ponte Preta
Botafogo SP0-3Ponte Preta
Botafogo SP0-0Ponte Preta

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Botafogo SP 1447 · Ponte Preta 1417

	Botafogo SP	Draw	Ponte Preta
Our model	72%	20%	8%
Market	75%	15%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Ponte Preta: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Botafogo SP	Ponte Preta
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.6	0.3 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/90/10%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6.2	1.5 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	4.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.22

X6.00

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.90

2 (+1.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22
X	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
2	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:13 +4’	1.22	6.00	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Botafogo SP 1–3–2 Ponte Preta

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/06/26 Brazil Serie B	Ponte Preta	0-0 HT 0-0	Botafogo SP
15/02/25 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Ponte Preta	0-0 HT 0-0	Botafogo SP
05/10/24 Brazil Serie B	Ponte Preta	1-0 HT 1-0	Botafogo SP
20/06/24 Brazil Serie B	Botafogo SP	2-0 HT 0-0	Ponte Preta
07/02/24 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Botafogo SP	0-3 HT 0-2	Ponte Preta
12/08/23 Brazil Serie B	Botafogo SP	0-0 HT 0-0	Ponte Preta

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vila Nova	29	15	6	8	41	31	51
2	Fortaleza	29	14	9	6	33	24	51
3	Gremio Novorizontino	29	14	8	7	49	27	50
4	EC Juventude	29	14	8	7	31	19	50
5	Criciuma	28	13	8	7	28	25	47
6	Atletico GO	29	12	10	7	36	27	46
7	CRB	29	13	6	10	42	41	45
8	Operario PR	28	12	8	8	39	36	44
9	Sport Recife	29	11	11	7	39	29	44
10	Cuiaba	29	10	13	6	30	22	43
11	Goias	29	12	6	11	30	35	42
12	Sao Bernardo SP	29	11	8	10	40	31	41
13	Athletic Club MG	29	10	11	8	34	31	41
14	Nautico	29	10	8	11	35	36	38
15	Ceara	29	9	8	12	31	37	35
16	Botafogo SP	29	8	8	13	32	36	32
17	Avai	29	8	6	15	30	38	30
18	Londrina	29	7	7	15	39	41	28
19	America MG	29	4	5	20	21	49	17
20	Ponte Preta	29	3	4	22	17	62	13

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Botafogo SP	Ponte Preta
Athletic Club MG	1-1 D	1-1 D
Nautico	0-1 L	1-1 D
Sao Bernardo SP	1-0 W	0-2 L
America MG	2-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Botafogo SP (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Botafogo SP

LWWDLLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
15/09	Goias Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-3	6	7	L
10/09	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-3	8	6	L
04/09	Nautico Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
29/08	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-2	4	3	L
26/08	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-3	5	4	L
20/08	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	11	3	D
15/08	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	11	3	W
08/08	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
29/07	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	6	3	L

Ponte Preta

DLDLLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	CRB Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
16/09	Londrina Brazil Serie B	0-3	0-6	0	3	L
11/09	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-2	3	4	L
06/09	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
30/08	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	2	1	L
23/08	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
20/08	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-3	0-6	4	3	L
15/08	Nautico Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	6	9	D
08/08	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
29/07	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	1	9	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Botafogo SP vs Ponte Preta?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Botafogo SP win (74%). Probabilities: Botafogo SP 74%, draw 17%, Ponte Preta 9%.

How many goals are expected in Botafogo SP vs Ponte Preta?

The model expects 2.59 goals (Botafogo SP 2.05 · Ponte Preta 0.54), with a 59% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Botafogo SP vs Ponte Preta?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.