Prediction: Daejeon Korail vs Gyeongju HNP
Expected goals: 2.64 (Daejeon Korail 1.44 · Gyeongju HNP 1.21). The model gives 41% home, 28% draw, 31% away. Under 2.5 goals (52%) and both teams to score (54%). Most likely score: 1-1.
On recent form, Daejeon Korail is 6-2-2 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Gyeongju HNP 3-5-2 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Daejeon Korail won 2 and Gyeongju HNP 2, with 2 draws.
| Daejeon Korail | Draw | Gyeongju HNP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 28% | 30% |
| Market | 42% | 28% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daejeon Korail (rating 1555 vs 1505).
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Daejeon Korail | Gyeongju HNP | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.8 | 1.6 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/10/30% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 3.9 | 1.2 / 3.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0 | 2.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daejeon Korail 2–2–2 Gyeongju HNP
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 South Korea K3 League | Gyeongju HNP | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Daejeon Korail |
| 13/07/25 South Korea K3 League | Gyeongju HNP | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Daejeon Korail |
| 16/03/25 South Korea K3 League | Daejeon Korail | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Gyeongju HNP |
| 02/11/24 South Korea K3 League | Daejeon Korail | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Gyeongju HNP |
| 22/06/24 South Korea K3 League | Gyeongju HNP | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Daejeon Korail |
| 18/08/23 South Korea K3 League | Daejeon Korail | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Gyeongju HNP |
Standings · South Korea K3 League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siheung City AC | 16 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 24 | 12 | 40 |
| 2 | Pocheon Citizen FC | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 14 | 34 |
| 3 | Daejeon Korail | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 11 | 31 |
| 4 | Busan Trans Corp | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 13 | 27 |
| 5 | Changwon City | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 24 |
| 6 | Dangjin Citizen FC | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 25 | 21 |
| 7 | Yeoju | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 20 | 21 | 21 |
| 8 | Gangneung City | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 24 | 19 |
| 9 | Chuncheon FC | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 29 | 28 | 16 |
| 10 | Gyeongju HNP | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 22 | 24 | 16 |
| 11 | Ulsan Citizen FC | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 19 | 16 |
| 12 | Yangpyeong FC | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 27 | 13 |
| 13 | Mokpo City | 16 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 24 | 12 |
| 14 | Jeonbuk Motors II | 16 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 35 | 9 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Daejeon Korail | Gyeongju HNP |
|---|---|---|
| Pocheon Citizen FC | 0-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Busan Trans Corp | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Jeonbuk Motors II | 4-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Chuncheon FC | 3-3 D | 2-2 D |
| Yeoju | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Mokpo City | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Dangjin Citizen FC | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Seosan Pioneer | 1-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 5 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Daejeon Korail (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daejeon Korail
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 28/06 | Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 20/06 | Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 06/06 | Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League |
2-2 | 3-3 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 31/05 | Yeoju South Korea K3 League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 27/05 | Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3/K4 Championship |
1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 23/05 | Mokpo City South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | Gangneung City South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 05/05 | Seosan Pioneer South Korea League Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
Gyeongju HNP
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Seosan Pioneer South Korea Cup |
3-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 28/06 | Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 21/06 | Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 13/06 | Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3/K4 Championship |
1-2 | 2-5 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 06/06 | Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 30/05 | Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 27/05 | Jinju Citizen FC South Korea K3/K4 Championship |
2-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | Yeoju South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 17/05 | Mokpo City South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daejeon Korail vs Gyeongju HNP?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Daejeon Korail win (41%). Probabilities: Daejeon Korail 41%, draw 28%, Gyeongju HNP 31%.
How many goals are expected in Daejeon Korail vs Gyeongju HNP?
The model expects 2.64 goals (Daejeon Korail 1.44 · Gyeongju HNP 1.21), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Daejeon Korail vs Gyeongju HNP?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.