Football · South Korea K3 League · 02/10, 12:00

Prediction: Daejeon Korail vs Gangneung City

Team pages: Daejeon Korail · Gangneung City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

Daejeon Korail1.57

Gangneung City0.96

1X2

51% 27% 22%

Daejeon Korail Draw Gangneung City

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Daejeon Korail 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDWWLDLWWL

Gangneung City 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLLDWWDL

Head-to-head

Daejeon Korail 2–2–2 Gangneung City (6 last)

Gangneung City0-3Daejeon Korail
Gangneung City4-3Daejeon Korail
Daejeon Korail1-1Gangneung City
Gangneung City3-2Daejeon Korail
Daejeon Korail1-0Gangneung City
Gangneung City2-2Daejeon Korail

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Daejeon Korail 1507 · Gangneung City 1461

	Daejeon Korail	Draw	Gangneung City
Our model	51%	28%	22%
Market	51%	26%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daejeon Korail (rating 1507 vs 1461).
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Daejeon Korail	Gangneung City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1	1.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 2.8	1.7 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.40

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Pinn 1.84 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
05:45 +23’	1.75	3.40	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:38 +28’	1.85	3.32	3.99
09:10 +56’	1.84▼	3.35▲	3.99

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Daejeon Korail 2–2–2 Gangneung City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 South Korea K3 League	Gangneung City	0-3 HT 0-1	Daejeon Korail
25/07/25 South Korea K3 League	Gangneung City	4-3 HT 3-0	Daejeon Korail
04/04/25 South Korea K3 League	Daejeon Korail	1-1 HT 0-1	Gangneung City
29/06/24 South Korea K3 League	Gangneung City	3-2 HT 2-0	Daejeon Korail
02/03/24 South Korea K3 League	Daejeon Korail	1-0 HT 0-0	Gangneung City
27/08/23 South Korea K3 League	Gangneung City	2-2 HT 1-2	Daejeon Korail

Standings · South Korea K3 League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Siheung City AC	22	16	4	2	35	19	52
2	Pocheon Citizen FC	22	13	6	3	38	19	45
3	Daejeon Korail	22	11	5	6	31	17	38
4	Busan Trans Corp	22	10	7	5	39	26	37
5	Gyeongju HNP	22	8	8	6	32	29	32
6	Dangjin Citizen FC	22	9	4	9	44	36	31
7	Chuncheon FC	22	8	5	9	39	35	29
8	Ulsan Citizen FC	22	8	4	10	23	24	28
9	Gangneung City	22	7	6	9	20	30	27
10	Changwon City	22	6	8	8	24	27	26
11	Yeoju	22	6	7	9	24	28	25
12	Mokpo City	22	4	9	9	19	35	21
13	Yangpyeong FC	22	3	8	11	27	43	17
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	22	1	7	14	22	49	10

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Daejeon Korail	Gangneung City
Ulsan Citizen FC	0-1 L	2-1 W
Changwon City	1-0 W	0-1 L
Pocheon Citizen FC	1-1 D	1-3 L
Gyeongju HNP	0-1 L	0-1 L
Busan Trans Corp	1-0 W	1-1 D
Jeonbuk Motors II	4-0 W	2-1 W
Chuncheon FC	3-3 D	1-0 W
Yeoju	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Daejeon Korail (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Daejeon Korail

LDWWLDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
05/09	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
29/08	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	2-1	3	4	W
23/08	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-2	1	7	L
25/07	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
11/07	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
28/06	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
20/06	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	1-0	4-0	2	3	W
06/06	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	2-2	3-3	3	6	D
31/05	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-1	5	4	L

Gangneung City

LWLLLDWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
06/09	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
29/08	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
23/08	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
25/07	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
11/07	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
28/06	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-3	2-5	6	1	L
21/06	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-3	3	4	L
06/06	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	2-1	3	2	W
30/05	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-1	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Daejeon Korail vs Gangneung City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Daejeon Korail win (51%). Probabilities: Daejeon Korail 51%, draw 27%, Gangneung City 22%.

How many goals are expected in Daejeon Korail vs Gangneung City?

The model expects 2.53 goals (Daejeon Korail 1.57 · Gangneung City 0.96), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Daejeon Korail vs Gangneung City?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.