Football · South Korea K3 League · 10/10, 07:00

Prediction: Changwon City vs Pocheon Citizen FC

Team pages: Changwon City · Pocheon Citizen FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

Changwon City0.93

Pocheon Citizen FC1.47

1X2

23% 28% 49%

Changwon City Draw Pocheon Citizen FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Changwon City 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WDDDDLLLLW

Pocheon Citizen FC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWDDWLWWLD

Head-to-head

Changwon City 0–4–2 Pocheon Citizen FC (6 last)

Pocheon Citizen FC1-1Changwon City
Pocheon Citizen FC0-0Changwon City
Changwon City1-2Pocheon Citizen FC
Pocheon Citizen FC1-0Changwon City
Changwon City0-0Pocheon Citizen FC
Pocheon Citizen FC1-1Changwon City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Changwon City 1468 · Pocheon Citizen FC 1551

	Changwon City	Draw	Pocheon Citizen FC
Our model	22%	29%	49%
Market	24%	26%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pocheon Citizen FC (rating 1468 vs 1551).
H2H favours Pocheon Citizen FC: 2-4-0.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Changwon City	Pocheon Citizen FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.7	1.5 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.3	2.3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.80

X3.40

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.98

2 (-0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.90
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.91 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
05:06 +8’	3.80	3.40	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:23 +62’	3.90	3.22	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Changwon City 0–4–2 Pocheon Citizen FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/05/26 South Korea K3/K4 Championship	Pocheon Citizen FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Changwon City
16/05/26 South Korea K3 League	Pocheon Citizen FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Changwon City
20/07/25 South Korea K3 League	Changwon City	1-2 HT 0-0	Pocheon Citizen FC
29/03/25 South Korea K3 League	Pocheon Citizen FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Changwon City
27/07/24 South Korea K3 League	Changwon City	0-0 HT 0-0	Pocheon Citizen FC
13/04/24 South Korea K3 League	Pocheon Citizen FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Changwon City

Standings · South Korea K3 League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Siheung City AC	23	17	4	2	37	20	55
2	Pocheon Citizen FC	23	13	7	3	38	19	46
3	Daejeon Korail	23	12	5	6	33	18	41
4	Busan Trans Corp	23	10	7	6	40	29	37
5	Gyeongju HNP	23	9	8	6	35	31	35
6	Dangjin Citizen FC	23	9	4	10	46	39	31
7	Chuncheon FC	23	8	6	9	39	35	30
8	Changwon City	23	7	8	8	26	28	29
9	Ulsan Citizen FC	23	8	4	11	24	26	28
10	Yeoju	23	7	7	9	26	29	28
11	Gangneung City	23	7	6	10	21	32	27
12	Mokpo City	23	5	9	9	22	36	24
13	Yangpyeong FC	23	3	8	12	28	45	17
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	23	1	7	15	23	51	10

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Changwon City	Pocheon Citizen FC
Yangpyeong FC	2-1 W	2-0 W
Gyeongju HNP	1-2 L	3-1 W
Siheung City AC	1-3 L	2-3 L
Daejeon Korail	0-1 L	1-1 D
Busan Trans Corp	3-4 L	0-1 L
Chuncheon FC	1-1 D	0-0 D
Yeoju	2-2 D	1-0 W
Mokpo City	1-1 D	2-0 W
Dangjin Citizen FC	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 4 L	4 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Pocheon Citizen FC (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Changwon City

WDDDDLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	2-1	4	1	W
20/09	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	1-1	1-2	0	4	L
13/09	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	1-3	1-3	6	3	L
05/09	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
22/08	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	0-3	3-4	5	5	L
26/07	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	1-1	1-1	5	0	D
12/07	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
27/06	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-2	8	1	D
20/06	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-1	8	2	D
06/06	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	2-1	7	1	W

Pocheon Citizen FC

WWDDWLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
19/09	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	11	3	L
13/09	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
06/09	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
30/08	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	0-3	2-3	6	5	L
22/08	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
25/07	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
11/07	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
28/06	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	2-0	3-1	7	6	W
21/06	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	1-0	3-1	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Changwon City vs Pocheon Citizen FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Pocheon Citizen FC win (49%). Probabilities: Changwon City 23%, draw 28%, Pocheon Citizen FC 49%.

How many goals are expected in Changwon City vs Pocheon Citizen FC?

The model expects 2.4 goals (Changwon City 0.93 · Pocheon Citizen FC 1.47), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Changwon City vs Pocheon Citizen FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.