Football · South Korea K3 League · 11/10, 07:00

Prediction: Gyeongju HNP vs Mokpo City

Team pages: Gyeongju HNP · Mokpo City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

Gyeongju HNP1.73

Mokpo City1.01

1X2

53% 25% 21%

Gyeongju HNP Draw Mokpo City

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Gyeongju HNP 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DDLWWDWWWW

Mokpo City 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DDLWLLWLWW

Head-to-head

Gyeongju HNP 4–1–1 Mokpo City (6 last)

Mokpo City0-1Gyeongju HNP
Gyeongju HNP2-0Mokpo City
Mokpo City0-1Gyeongju HNP
Mokpo City4-0Gyeongju HNP
Gyeongju HNP2-0Mokpo City
Mokpo City1-1Gyeongju HNP

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gyeongju HNP 1573 · Mokpo City 1484

	Gyeongju HNP	Draw	Mokpo City
Our model	53%	26%	21%
Market	54%	24%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gyeongju HNP (rating 1573 vs 1484).
H2H favours Gyeongju HNP: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gyeongju HNP	Mokpo City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.2	1.2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.3	1.8 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.70

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Pinn 1.68
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.69 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
09:09 +23’	1.67	3.70	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:18 +51’	1.68	3.56	4.59
08:23 +69’	1.68▼	3.60▲	4.59
09:47 +88’	1.67▼	3.63▲	4.59
05:01 +18’	1.68▲	3.69▲	4.69▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gyeongju HNP 4–1–1 Mokpo City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 South Korea K3 League	Mokpo City	0-1 HT 0-0	Gyeongju HNP
16/08/25 South Korea K3 League	Gyeongju HNP	2-0 HT 1-0	Mokpo City
20/04/25 South Korea K3 League	Mokpo City	0-1 HT 0-0	Gyeongju HNP
17/08/24 South Korea K3 League	Mokpo City	4-0 HT 1-0	Gyeongju HNP
21/04/24 South Korea K3 League	Gyeongju HNP	2-0 HT 2-0	Mokpo City
16/09/23 South Korea K3 League	Mokpo City	1-1 HT 0-0	Gyeongju HNP

Standings · South Korea K3 League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Siheung City AC	23	17	4	2	37	20	55
2	Pocheon Citizen FC	24	14	7	3	41	20	49
3	Daejeon Korail	24	12	5	7	33	19	41
4	Busan Trans Corp	24	11	7	6	42	30	40
5	Gyeongju HNP	23	9	8	6	35	31	35
6	Dangjin Citizen FC	24	10	4	10	47	39	34
7	Chuncheon FC	24	9	6	9	42	37	33
8	Changwon City	24	7	8	9	27	31	29
9	Ulsan Citizen FC	24	8	4	12	25	28	28
10	Yeoju	24	7	7	10	27	31	28
11	Gangneung City	23	7	6	10	21	32	27
12	Mokpo City	23	5	9	9	22	36	24
13	Yangpyeong FC	24	4	8	12	30	46	20
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	24	1	7	16	25	54	10

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gyeongju HNP	Mokpo City
Dangjin Citizen FC	3-2 W	1-6 L
Changwon City	2-1 W	1-1 D
Gangneung City	1-0 W	2-1 W
Ulsan Citizen FC	2-1 W	1-4 L
Yangpyeong FC	3-3 D	0-0 D
Pocheon Citizen FC	1-3 L	0-2 L
Busan Trans Corp	1-1 D	3-1 W
Jeonbuk Motors II	1-1 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Gyeongju HNP (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gyeongju HNP

DDLWWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	2-1	3-2	5	7	W
20/09	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
12/09	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
05/09	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-1	2	7	W
22/08	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	2-0	3-3	7	3	D
25/07	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
11/07	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
28/06	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-2	1-3	2	6	L
21/06	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
06/06	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-1	1	2	D

Mokpo City

DDLWLLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	2-1	3-1	2	3	W
13/09	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	1-1	3-1	6	2	W
06/09	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
30/08	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	11	2	W
22/08	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
25/07	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-2	1-6	4	4	L
11/07	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
27/06	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-4	4	1	L
20/06	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
07/06	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-0	3	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gyeongju HNP vs Mokpo City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gyeongju HNP win (53%). Probabilities: Gyeongju HNP 53%, draw 25%, Mokpo City 21%.

How many goals are expected in Gyeongju HNP vs Mokpo City?

The model expects 2.74 goals (Gyeongju HNP 1.73 · Mokpo City 1.01), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Gyeongju HNP vs Mokpo City?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.