Football · South Korea K3 League · 10/10, 07:00

Prediction: Busan Trans Corp vs Yeoju

Team pages: Busan Trans Corp · Yeoju

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Busan Trans Corp1.59

Yeoju1.06

1X2

49% 27% 25%

Busan Trans Corp Draw Yeoju

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Busan Trans Corp 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Yeoju 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Busan Trans Corp 3–2–1 Yeoju (6 last)

Yeoju0-2Busan Trans Corp
Yeoju1-1Busan Trans Corp
Yeoju1-3Busan Trans Corp
Busan Trans Corp1-1Yeoju
Yeoju0-1Busan Trans Corp
Busan Trans Corp0-1Yeoju

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Busan Trans Corp 1534 · Yeoju 1478

	Busan Trans Corp	Draw	Yeoju
Our model	48%	27%	24%
Market	49%	26%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Busan Trans Corp (rating 1534 vs 1478).
H2H favours Busan Trans Corp: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Busan Trans Corp	Yeoju
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.8	1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1	0.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	0/70/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.1	1.2 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.40

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Pinn 1.99 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
08:10 +14’	1.83	3.40	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:23 +61’	1.99	3.29	3.51

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Busan Trans Corp 3–2–1 Yeoju

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/06/26 South Korea K3/K4 Championship	Yeoju	0-2 HT 0-1	Busan Trans Corp
16/05/26 South Korea K3 League	Yeoju	1-1 HT 1-0	Busan Trans Corp
05/07/25 South Korea K3 League	Yeoju	1-3 HT 1-2	Busan Trans Corp
01/03/25 South Korea K3 League	Busan Trans Corp	1-1 HT 1-0	Yeoju
28/09/24 South Korea K3 League	Yeoju	0-1 HT 0-0	Busan Trans Corp
01/06/24 South Korea K3 League	Busan Trans Corp	0-1 HT 0-1	Yeoju

Standings · South Korea K3 League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Siheung City AC	23	17	4	2	37	20	55
2	Pocheon Citizen FC	23	13	7	3	38	19	46
3	Daejeon Korail	23	12	5	6	33	18	41
4	Busan Trans Corp	23	10	7	6	40	29	37
5	Gyeongju HNP	23	9	8	6	35	31	35
6	Dangjin Citizen FC	23	9	4	10	46	39	31
7	Chuncheon FC	23	8	6	9	39	35	30
8	Changwon City	23	7	8	8	26	28	29
9	Ulsan Citizen FC	23	8	4	11	24	26	28
10	Yeoju	23	7	7	9	26	29	28
11	Gangneung City	23	7	6	10	21	32	27
12	Mokpo City	23	5	9	9	22	36	24
13	Yangpyeong FC	23	3	8	12	28	45	17
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	23	1	7	15	23	51	10

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Busan Trans Corp	Yeoju
Mokpo City	1-3 L	0-1 L
Pocheon Citizen FC	1-0 W	0-1 L
Dangjin Citizen FC	3-5 L	2-1 W
Gangneung City	1-1 D	1-1 D
Ulsan Citizen FC	1-2 L	0-1 L
Changwon City	4-3 W	2-2 D
Yangpyeong FC	4-2 W	2-1 W
Siheung City AC	2-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Busan Trans Corp (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Busan Trans Corp

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	1-2	1-3	5	3	L
19/09	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
13/09	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	2-3	3-5	7	1	L
06/09	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
30/08	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
22/08	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	3-0	4-3	2	5	W
26/07	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	1-2	4-2	4	7	W
11/07	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	2-0	2-0	1	0	W
28/06	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
21/06	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-1	5	2	D

Yeoju

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
12/09	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-2	1	3	L
06/09	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
30/08	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
22/08	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	2-1	5	4	W
25/07	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
10/07	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
27/06	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	0-1	2-2	3	1	D
20/06	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	2-1	2	9	W
07/06	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Busan Trans Corp vs Yeoju?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Busan Trans Corp win (49%). Probabilities: Busan Trans Corp 49%, draw 27%, Yeoju 25%.

How many goals are expected in Busan Trans Corp vs Yeoju?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Busan Trans Corp 1.59 · Yeoju 1.06), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Busan Trans Corp vs Yeoju?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.