Football · South Korea K3 League · 10/10, 12:00

Prediction: Daejeon Korail vs Dangjin Citizen FC

Team pages: Daejeon Korail · Dangjin Citizen FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

Daejeon Korail1.82

Dangjin Citizen FC1.17

1X2

52% 25% 23%

Daejeon Korail Draw Dangjin Citizen FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Daejeon Korail 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLDLWWLW

Dangjin Citizen FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDWDWWLLWL

Head-to-head

Daejeon Korail 4–0 Dangjin Citizen FC (4 last)

Dangjin Citizen FC0-1Daejeon Korail
Daejeon Korail3-1Dangjin Citizen FC
Dangjin Citizen FC0-1Daejeon Korail
Daejeon Korail3-1Dangjin Citizen FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Daejeon Korail 1521 · Dangjin Citizen FC 1506

	Daejeon Korail	Draw	Dangjin Citizen FC
Our model	52%	25%	23%
Market	52%	25%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Daejeon Korail: 4-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Daejeon Korail	Dangjin Citizen FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1	2.7 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	1.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 2.8	2.2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.3	2.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.60

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
08:22 +6’	1.73	3.60	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Daejeon Korail 4–0–0 Dangjin Citizen FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 South Korea K3 League	Dangjin Citizen FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Daejeon Korail
09/03/24 South Korea Cup	Daejeon Korail	3-1 HT 2-0	Dangjin Citizen FC
29/10/22 South Korea K3 League	Dangjin Citizen FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Daejeon Korail
03/06/22 South Korea K3 League	Daejeon Korail	3-1 HT 0-0	Dangjin Citizen FC

Standings · South Korea K3 League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Siheung City AC	23	17	4	2	37	20	55
2	Pocheon Citizen FC	23	13	7	3	38	19	46
3	Daejeon Korail	23	12	5	6	33	18	41
4	Busan Trans Corp	23	10	7	6	40	29	37
5	Gyeongju HNP	23	9	8	6	35	31	35
6	Dangjin Citizen FC	23	9	4	10	46	39	31
7	Chuncheon FC	23	8	6	9	39	35	30
8	Changwon City	23	7	8	8	26	28	29
9	Ulsan Citizen FC	23	8	4	11	24	26	28
10	Yeoju	23	7	7	9	26	29	28
11	Gangneung City	23	7	6	10	21	32	27
12	Mokpo City	23	5	9	9	22	36	24
13	Yangpyeong FC	23	3	8	12	28	45	17
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	23	1	7	15	23	51	10

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Daejeon Korail	Dangjin Citizen FC
Gangneung City	2-1 W	5-2 W
Ulsan Citizen FC	0-1 L	1-1 D
Changwon City	1-0 W	1-2 L
Pocheon Citizen FC	1-1 D	1-1 D
Gyeongju HNP	0-1 L	2-3 L
Busan Trans Corp	1-0 W	5-3 W
Jeonbuk Motors II	4-0 W	2-0 W
Chuncheon FC	3-3 D	3-4 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Daejeon Korail

DWWLDLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
11/09	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
05/09	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
29/08	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	2-1	3	4	W
23/08	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-2	1	7	L
25/07	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
11/07	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
28/06	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
20/06	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	1-0	4-0	2	3	W
06/06	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	2-2	3-3	3	6	D

Dangjin Citizen FC

LDWDWWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	1-2	2-3	6	7	L
13/09	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	3-2	5-3	3	1	W
29/08	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	1-0	3-4	8	1	L
22/08	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-2	5	4	L
25/07	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	2-1	6-1	3	4	W
18/07	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-0	8	3	W
11/07	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
28/06	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	3-1	5-2	2	1	W
20/06	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
06/06	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-2	2	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Daejeon Korail vs Dangjin Citizen FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Daejeon Korail win (52%). Probabilities: Daejeon Korail 52%, draw 25%, Dangjin Citizen FC 23%.

How many goals are expected in Daejeon Korail vs Dangjin Citizen FC?

The model expects 2.99 goals (Daejeon Korail 1.82 · Dangjin Citizen FC 1.17), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Daejeon Korail vs Dangjin Citizen FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.