Football · South Korea K3 League · 04/10, 07:00

Prediction: Dangjin Citizen FC vs Gyeongju HNP

Team pages: Dangjin Citizen FC · Gyeongju HNP

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.36Total

Dangjin Citizen FC1.59

Gyeongju HNP1.77

1X2

33% 26% 41%

Dangjin Citizen FC Draw Gyeongju HNP

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Dangjin Citizen FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWDWWLLW

Gyeongju HNP 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DDDLWWDWWW

Head-to-head

Dangjin Citizen FC 0–1–2 Gyeongju HNP (3 last)

Gyeongju HNP2-2Dangjin Citizen FC
Gyeongju HNP1-0Dangjin Citizen FC
Dangjin Citizen FC1-4Gyeongju HNP

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dangjin Citizen FC 1539 · Gyeongju HNP 1552

	Dangjin Citizen FC	Draw	Gyeongju HNP
Our model	34%	25%	41%
Market	33%	26%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Gyeongju HNP: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dangjin Citizen FC	Gyeongju HNP
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 1.7	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/30/0%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5	1.4 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.4	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.40

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 3.10 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.45
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
08:57 +33’	2.70	3.40	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:54 +38’	3.10	3.45	2.09

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Dangjin Citizen FC 0–1–2 Gyeongju HNP

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 South Korea K3 League	Gyeongju HNP	2-2 HT 1-1	Dangjin Citizen FC
23/10/22 South Korea K3 League	Gyeongju HNP	1-0	Dangjin Citizen FC
09/04/22 South Korea K3 League	Dangjin Citizen FC	1-4 HT 1-1	Gyeongju HNP

Standings · South Korea K3 League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Siheung City AC	22	16	4	2	35	19	52
2	Pocheon Citizen FC	22	13	6	3	38	19	45
3	Daejeon Korail	22	11	5	6	31	17	38
4	Busan Trans Corp	22	10	7	5	39	26	37
5	Gyeongju HNP	22	8	8	6	32	29	32
6	Dangjin Citizen FC	22	9	4	9	44	36	31
7	Chuncheon FC	22	8	5	9	39	35	29
8	Ulsan Citizen FC	22	8	4	10	23	24	28
9	Gangneung City	22	7	6	9	20	30	27
10	Changwon City	22	6	8	8	24	27	26
11	Yeoju	22	6	7	9	24	28	25
12	Mokpo City	22	4	9	9	19	35	21
13	Yangpyeong FC	22	3	8	11	27	43	17
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	22	1	7	14	22	49	10

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dangjin Citizen FC	Gyeongju HNP
Busan Trans Corp	5-3 W	1-1 D
Chuncheon FC	3-4 L	2-2 D
Jeonbuk Motors II	2-0 W	1-1 D
Pocheon Citizen FC	1-1 D	1-3 L
Gangneung City	5-2 W	1-0 W
Ulsan Citizen FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Changwon City	1-2 L	2-1 W
Yangpyeong FC	3-1 W	3-3 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Dangjin Citizen FC (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dangjin Citizen FC

WLDWDWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	3-2	5-3	3	1	W
29/08	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	1-0	3-4	8	1	L
22/08	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-2	5	4	L
25/07	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	2-1	6-1	3	4	W
18/07	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-0	8	3	W
11/07	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
28/06	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	3-1	5-2	2	1	W
20/06	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
06/06	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-2	2	1	L
30/05	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	1-1	3-1	6	6	W

Gyeongju HNP

DDDLWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
12/09	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
05/09	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-1	2	7	W
22/08	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	2-0	3-3	7	3	D
25/07	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
11/07	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
28/06	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-2	1-3	2	6	L
21/06	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
06/06	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-1	1	2	D
30/05	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-2	1	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dangjin Citizen FC vs Gyeongju HNP?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Gyeongju HNP win (41%). Probabilities: Dangjin Citizen FC 33%, draw 26%, Gyeongju HNP 41%.

How many goals are expected in Dangjin Citizen FC vs Gyeongju HNP?

The model expects 3.36 goals (Dangjin Citizen FC 1.59 · Gyeongju HNP 1.77), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Dangjin Citizen FC vs Gyeongju HNP?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.