Football · South Korea K3 League · 04/10, 07:00

Prediction: Mokpo City vs Busan Trans Corp

Team pages: Mokpo City · Busan Trans Corp

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Mokpo City1.32

Busan Trans Corp1.65

1X2

30% 26% 45%

Mokpo City Draw Busan Trans Corp

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Mokpo City 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDDLWLLWLW

Busan Trans Corp 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDLWWWLDLW

Head-to-head

Mokpo City 2–4 Busan Trans Corp (6 last)

Busan Trans Corp3-0Mokpo City
Busan Trans Corp2-1Mokpo City
Mokpo City1-3Busan Trans Corp
Busan Trans Corp2-0Mokpo City
Mokpo City2-0Busan Trans Corp
Mokpo City2-0Busan Trans Corp

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mokpo City 1470 · Busan Trans Corp 1551

	Mokpo City	Draw	Busan Trans Corp
Our model	29%	26%	44%
Market	30%	26%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Busan Trans Corp (rating 1470 vs 1551).
H2H favours Busan Trans Corp: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mokpo City	Busan Trans Corp
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.7	1.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.8	1.3 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.50

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.16
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.17 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
09:18 +12’	3.00	3.50	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:22 +8’	3.16	3.19	2.17

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mokpo City 2–0–4 Busan Trans Corp

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 South Korea K3 League	Busan Trans Corp	3-0 HT 0-0	Mokpo City
27/07/25 South Korea K3 League	Busan Trans Corp	2-1 HT 1-0	Mokpo City
05/04/25 South Korea K3 League	Mokpo City	1-3 HT 1-1	Busan Trans Corp
04/10/24 South Korea K3 League	Busan Trans Corp	2-0 HT 1-0	Mokpo City
08/06/24 South Korea K3 League	Mokpo City	2-0 HT 0-0	Busan Trans Corp
13/08/23 South Korea K3 League	Mokpo City	2-0 HT 1-0	Busan Trans Corp

Standings · South Korea K3 League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Siheung City AC	22	16	4	2	35	19	52
2	Pocheon Citizen FC	22	13	6	3	38	19	45
3	Daejeon Korail	22	11	5	6	31	17	38
4	Busan Trans Corp	22	10	7	5	39	26	37
5	Gyeongju HNP	22	8	8	6	32	29	32
6	Dangjin Citizen FC	22	9	4	9	44	36	31
7	Chuncheon FC	22	8	5	9	39	35	29
8	Ulsan Citizen FC	22	8	4	10	23	24	28
9	Gangneung City	22	7	6	9	20	30	27
10	Changwon City	22	6	8	8	24	27	26
11	Yeoju	22	6	7	9	24	28	25
12	Mokpo City	22	4	9	9	19	35	21
13	Yangpyeong FC	22	3	8	11	27	43	17
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	22	1	7	14	22	49	10

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mokpo City	Busan Trans Corp
Pocheon Citizen FC	0-2 L	1-0 W
Dangjin Citizen FC	1-6 L	3-5 L
Gangneung City	2-1 W	1-1 D
Ulsan Citizen FC	1-4 L	1-2 L
Changwon City	1-1 D	4-3 W
Yangpyeong FC	0-0 D	4-2 W
Siheung City AC	1-1 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Busan Trans Corp (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mokpo City

DDDLWLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	1-1	3-1	6	2	W
06/09	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
30/08	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	11	2	W
22/08	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
25/07	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-2	1-6	4	4	L
11/07	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
27/06	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-4	4	1	L
20/06	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
07/06	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
31/05	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-1	3	3	D

Busan Trans Corp

DDLWWWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
13/09	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	2-3	3-5	7	1	L
06/09	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
30/08	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
22/08	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	3-0	4-3	2	5	W
26/07	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	1-2	4-2	4	7	W
11/07	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	2-0	2-0	1	0	W
28/06	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
21/06	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-1	5	2	D
06/06	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-1	2	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mokpo City vs Busan Trans Corp?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Busan Trans Corp win (45%). Probabilities: Mokpo City 30%, draw 26%, Busan Trans Corp 45%.

How many goals are expected in Mokpo City vs Busan Trans Corp?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Mokpo City 1.32 · Busan Trans Corp 1.65), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Mokpo City vs Busan Trans Corp?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.