Football · South Korea K3 League · 09/10, 07:00

Prediction: Yangpyeong FC vs Ulsan Citizen FC

Team pages: Yangpyeong FC · Ulsan Citizen FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

Yangpyeong FC1.31

Ulsan Citizen FC1.28

1X2

36% 28% 35%

Yangpyeong FC Draw Ulsan Citizen FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Yangpyeong FC 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Ulsan Citizen FC 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LDWWLWWLWL

Head-to-head

Yangpyeong FC 2–2–2 Ulsan Citizen FC (6 last)

Ulsan Citizen FC0-0Yangpyeong FC
Ulsan Citizen FC0-1Yangpyeong FC
Yangpyeong FC2-0Ulsan Citizen FC
Ulsan Citizen FC3-2Yangpyeong FC
Yangpyeong FC0-2Ulsan Citizen FC
Ulsan Citizen FC0-0Yangpyeong FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Yangpyeong FC 1434 · Ulsan Citizen FC 1496

	Yangpyeong FC	Draw	Ulsan Citizen FC
Our model	36%	29%	35%
Market	37%	28%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ulsan Citizen FC (rating 1434 vs 1496).
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Yangpyeong FC	Ulsan Citizen FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.3	1.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.2	2.6 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.20

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 1 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.76 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.32
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
07:48 +11’	2.45	3.20	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:27 +32’	2.76	3.32	2.34

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Yangpyeong FC 2–2–2 Ulsan Citizen FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 South Korea K3 League	Ulsan Citizen FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Yangpyeong FC
25/10/25 South Korea K3 League	Ulsan Citizen FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Yangpyeong FC
15/06/25 South Korea K3 League	Yangpyeong FC	2-0 HT 0-0	Ulsan Citizen FC
28/06/24 South Korea K3 League	Ulsan Citizen FC	3-2 HT 0-0	Yangpyeong FC
03/03/24 South Korea K3 League	Yangpyeong FC	0-2 HT 0-1	Ulsan Citizen FC
11/11/23 South Korea K3 League	Ulsan Citizen FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Yangpyeong FC

Standings · South Korea K3 League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Siheung City AC	23	17	4	2	37	20	55
2	Pocheon Citizen FC	23	13	7	3	38	19	46
3	Daejeon Korail	23	12	5	6	33	18	41
4	Busan Trans Corp	23	10	7	6	40	29	37
5	Gyeongju HNP	23	9	8	6	35	31	35
6	Dangjin Citizen FC	23	9	4	10	46	39	31
7	Chuncheon FC	23	8	6	9	39	35	30
8	Changwon City	23	7	8	8	26	28	29
9	Ulsan Citizen FC	23	8	4	11	24	26	28
10	Yeoju	23	7	7	9	26	29	28
11	Gangneung City	23	7	6	10	21	32	27
12	Mokpo City	23	5	9	9	22	36	24
13	Yangpyeong FC	23	3	8	12	28	45	17
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	23	1	7	15	23	51	10

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Yangpyeong FC	Ulsan Citizen FC
Siheung City AC	1-3 L	1-2 L
Daejeon Korail	1-2 L	1-0 W
Gyeongju HNP	3-3 D	1-2 L
Busan Trans Corp	2-4 L	2-1 W
Jeonbuk Motors II	5-2 W	1-0 W
Chuncheon FC	3-3 D	1-2 L
Yeoju	1-2 L	1-0 W
Mokpo City	0-0 D	4-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 4 L	5 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Ulsan Citizen FC (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Yangpyeong FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-2	4	1	L
13/09	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
06/09	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	0-2	1-3	8	2	L
29/08	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-2	2	4	L
22/08	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	0-2	3-3	5	3	D
26/07	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	2-1	2-4	2	7	L
12/07	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	2-1	5-2	4	5	W
27/06	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	3-3	2	6	D
20/06	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-2	8	9	L
07/06	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-0	2	8	D

Ulsan Citizen FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-2	7	8	L
11/09	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
05/09	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-2	3	7	L
30/08	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
23/08	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
26/07	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-2	5	7	L
10/07	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
27/06	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	1-0	4-1	6	1	W
20/06	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-1	1-1	4	5	D
06/06	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-2	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Yangpyeong FC vs Ulsan Citizen FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Yangpyeong FC win (36%). Probabilities: Yangpyeong FC 36%, draw 28%, Ulsan Citizen FC 35%.

How many goals are expected in Yangpyeong FC vs Ulsan Citizen FC?

The model expects 2.59 goals (Yangpyeong FC 1.31 · Ulsan Citizen FC 1.28), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Yangpyeong FC vs Ulsan Citizen FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.