Football · South Korea K3 League · 03/10, 10:00

Prediction: Ulsan Citizen FC vs Siheung City AC

Team pages: Ulsan Citizen FC · Siheung City AC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.32Total

Ulsan Citizen FC0.65

Siheung City AC1.68

1X2

14% 24% 62%

Ulsan Citizen FC Draw Siheung City AC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Ulsan Citizen FC 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLDWWLWWLW

Siheung City AC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWWDLLWWWW

Head-to-head

Ulsan Citizen FC 1–5 Siheung City AC (6 last)

Siheung City AC0-1Ulsan Citizen FC
Ulsan Citizen FC0-1Siheung City AC
Ulsan Citizen FC0-1Siheung City AC
Siheung City AC2-1Ulsan Citizen FC
Siheung City AC2-0Ulsan Citizen FC
Ulsan Citizen FC0-2Siheung City AC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ulsan Citizen FC 1512 · Siheung City AC 1549

	Ulsan Citizen FC	Draw	Siheung City AC
Our model	13%	26%	61%
Market	15%	22%	63%

Estimated total (ours) 2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Siheung City AC: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ulsan Citizen FC	Siheung City AC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1	1.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	1.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.2	2.4 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

16.00

X4.10

21.42

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.80

2 (-1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	1.42 → 1.42	Pinn 1.75 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
09:08 +4’	6.00	4.10	1.42

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:26 +45’	4.39	3.41	1.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ulsan Citizen FC 1–0–5 Siheung City AC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/06/26 South Korea K3/K4 Championship	Siheung City AC	0-1 HT 0-1	Ulsan Citizen FC
09/05/26 South Korea K3 League	Ulsan Citizen FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Siheung City AC
26/09/25 South Korea K3 League	Ulsan Citizen FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Siheung City AC
31/05/25 South Korea K3 League	Siheung City AC	2-1 HT 1-1	Ulsan Citizen FC
27/07/24 South Korea K3 League	Siheung City AC	2-0 HT 2-0	Ulsan Citizen FC
14/04/24 South Korea K3 League	Ulsan Citizen FC	0-2 HT 0-0	Siheung City AC

Standings · South Korea K3 League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Siheung City AC	22	16	4	2	35	19	52
2	Pocheon Citizen FC	22	13	6	3	38	19	45
3	Daejeon Korail	22	11	5	6	31	17	38
4	Busan Trans Corp	22	10	7	5	39	26	37
5	Gyeongju HNP	22	8	8	6	32	29	32
6	Dangjin Citizen FC	22	9	4	9	44	36	31
7	Chuncheon FC	22	8	5	9	39	35	29
8	Ulsan Citizen FC	22	8	4	10	23	24	28
9	Gangneung City	22	7	6	9	20	30	27
10	Changwon City	22	6	8	8	24	27	26
11	Yeoju	22	6	7	9	24	28	25
12	Mokpo City	22	4	9	9	19	35	21
13	Yangpyeong FC	22	3	8	11	27	43	17
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	22	1	7	14	22	49	10

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ulsan Citizen FC	Siheung City AC
Daejeon Korail	1-0 W	2-0 W
Gyeongju HNP	1-2 L	0-1 L
Busan Trans Corp	2-1 W	0-2 L
Jeonbuk Motors II	1-0 W	1-1 D
Chuncheon FC	1-2 L	3-2 W
Yeoju	1-0 W	1-0 W
Mokpo City	4-1 W	1-1 D
Pocheon Citizen FC	0-1 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 3 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ulsan Citizen FC

LLDWWLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
05/09	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-2	3	7	L
30/08	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
23/08	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
26/07	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-2	5	7	L
10/07	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
27/06	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	1-0	4-1	6	1	W
20/06	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-1	1-1	4	5	D
06/06	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-2	3	2	L
30/05	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	3	4	L

Siheung City AC

DWWDLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	3-1	3-1	4	3	W
06/09	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	2-0	3-1	5	2	W
30/08	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	3-0	3-2	6	5	W
23/08	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-0	8	7	W
25/07	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
11/07	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	0-2	0-2	9	0	L
27/06	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
20/06	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	2-2	3-2	4	2	W
07/06	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
31/05	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-1	7	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ulsan Citizen FC vs Siheung City AC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Siheung City AC win (62%). Probabilities: Ulsan Citizen FC 14%, draw 24%, Siheung City AC 62%.

How many goals are expected in Ulsan Citizen FC vs Siheung City AC?

The model expects 2.32 goals (Ulsan Citizen FC 0.65 · Siheung City AC 1.68), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ulsan Citizen FC vs Siheung City AC?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.