Football · South Korea K3 League · 03/10, 07:00

Prediction: Changwon City vs Yangpyeong FC

Team pages: Changwon City · Yangpyeong FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

Changwon City1.8

Yangpyeong FC1.4

1X2

45% 26% 28%

Changwon City Draw Yangpyeong FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Changwon City 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Yangpyeong FC 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Changwon City 3–1–2 Yangpyeong FC (6 last)

Yangpyeong FC1-0Changwon City
Changwon City1-0Yangpyeong FC
Yangpyeong FC0-0Changwon City
Yangpyeong FC1-5Changwon City
Changwon City2-0Yangpyeong FC
Yangpyeong FC2-0Changwon City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Changwon City 1458 · Yangpyeong FC 1435

	Changwon City	Draw	Yangpyeong FC
Our model	46%	25%	29%
Market	45%	27%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Changwon City: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Changwon City	Yangpyeong FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.6	1.7 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.6	1.9 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	5.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.30

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 1 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.33
2	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.86 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
09:07 +5’	2.00	3.30	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:23 +48’	1.88	3.33	3.86

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Changwon City 3–1–2 Yangpyeong FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 South Korea K3 League	Yangpyeong FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Changwon City
27/07/25 South Korea K3 League	Changwon City	1-0 HT 0-0	Yangpyeong FC
06/04/25 South Korea K3 League	Yangpyeong FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Changwon City
18/08/24 South Korea K3 League	Yangpyeong FC	1-5 HT 1-3	Changwon City
21/04/24 South Korea K3 League	Changwon City	2-0 HT 2-0	Yangpyeong FC
02/07/23 South Korea K3 League	Yangpyeong FC	2-0 HT 0-0	Changwon City

Standings · South Korea K3 League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Siheung City AC	22	16	4	2	35	19	52
2	Pocheon Citizen FC	22	13	6	3	38	19	45
3	Daejeon Korail	22	11	5	6	31	17	38
4	Busan Trans Corp	22	10	7	5	39	26	37
5	Gyeongju HNP	22	8	8	6	32	29	32
6	Dangjin Citizen FC	22	9	4	9	44	36	31
7	Chuncheon FC	22	8	5	9	39	35	29
8	Ulsan Citizen FC	22	8	4	10	23	24	28
9	Gangneung City	22	7	6	9	20	30	27
10	Changwon City	22	6	8	8	24	27	26
11	Yeoju	22	6	7	9	24	28	25
12	Mokpo City	22	4	9	9	19	35	21
13	Yangpyeong FC	22	3	8	11	27	43	17
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	22	1	7	14	22	49	10

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Changwon City	Yangpyeong FC
Gyeongju HNP	1-2 L	3-3 D
Siheung City AC	1-3 L	1-3 L
Daejeon Korail	0-1 L	1-2 L
Busan Trans Corp	3-4 L	2-4 L
Jeonbuk Motors II	1-1 D	5-2 W
Chuncheon FC	1-1 D	3-3 D
Yeoju	2-2 D	1-2 L
Mokpo City	1-1 D	0-0 D
Dangjin Citizen FC	2-1 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 4 L	1 W 3 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Changwon City (3 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Changwon City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	1-1	1-2	0	4	L
13/09	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	1-3	1-3	6	3	L
05/09	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
22/08	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	0-3	3-4	5	5	L
26/07	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	1-1	1-1	5	0	D
12/07	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
27/06	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-2	8	1	D
20/06	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-1	8	2	D
06/06	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	2-1	7	1	W
30/05	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-0	7	3	W

Yangpyeong FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
06/09	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	0-2	1-3	8	2	L
29/08	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-2	2	4	L
22/08	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	0-2	3-3	5	3	D
26/07	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	2-1	2-4	2	7	L
12/07	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	2-1	5-2	4	5	W
27/06	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	3-3	2	6	D
20/06	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-2	8	9	L
07/06	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-0	2	8	D
30/05	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-1	1-3	3	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Changwon City vs Yangpyeong FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Changwon City win (45%). Probabilities: Changwon City 45%, draw 26%, Yangpyeong FC 28%.

How many goals are expected in Changwon City vs Yangpyeong FC?

The model expects 3.2 goals (Changwon City 1.8 · Yangpyeong FC 1.4), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Changwon City vs Yangpyeong FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.