Football · South Korea K3 League · 03/10, 07:00

Prediction: Pocheon Citizen FC vs Chuncheon FC

Team pages: Pocheon Citizen FC · Chuncheon FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

Pocheon Citizen FC1.95

Chuncheon FC1

1X2

58% 24% 18%

Pocheon Citizen FC Draw Chuncheon FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Pocheon Citizen FC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWWDDWLWWL

Chuncheon FC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDLDDWLWWW

Head-to-head

Pocheon Citizen FC 4–2–0 Chuncheon FC (6 last)

Chuncheon FC0-1Pocheon Citizen FC
Chuncheon FC0-1Pocheon Citizen FC
Pocheon Citizen FC1-0Chuncheon FC
Pocheon Citizen FC0-0Chuncheon FC
Chuncheon FC2-3Pocheon Citizen FC
Pocheon Citizen FC0-0Chuncheon FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pocheon Citizen FC 1573 · Chuncheon FC 1498

	Pocheon Citizen FC	Draw	Chuncheon FC
Our model	58%	24%	18%
Market	58%	24%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pocheon Citizen FC (rating 1573 vs 1498).
H2H favours Pocheon Citizen FC: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pocheon Citizen FC	Chuncheon FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.9	2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 6.9	1.6 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.3	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.53

X3.80

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Pinn 1.59 ★
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
08:05 +6’	1.53	3.80	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:38 +33’	1.59	3.77	5.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pocheon Citizen FC 4–2–0 Chuncheon FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 South Korea K3 League	Chuncheon FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Pocheon Citizen FC
12/07/25 South Korea K3 League	Chuncheon FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Pocheon Citizen FC
15/03/25 South Korea K3 League	Pocheon Citizen FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Chuncheon FC
06/07/24 South Korea K3 League	Pocheon Citizen FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Chuncheon FC
16/03/24 South Korea K3 League	Chuncheon FC	2-3 HT 0-0	Pocheon Citizen FC
08/07/23 South Korea K3 League	Pocheon Citizen FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Chuncheon FC

Standings · South Korea K3 League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Siheung City AC	22	16	4	2	35	19	52
2	Pocheon Citizen FC	22	13	6	3	38	19	45
3	Daejeon Korail	22	11	5	6	31	17	38
4	Busan Trans Corp	22	10	7	5	39	26	37
5	Gyeongju HNP	22	8	8	6	32	29	32
6	Dangjin Citizen FC	22	9	4	9	44	36	31
7	Chuncheon FC	22	8	5	9	39	35	29
8	Ulsan Citizen FC	22	8	4	10	23	24	28
9	Gangneung City	22	7	6	9	20	30	27
10	Changwon City	22	6	8	8	24	27	26
11	Yeoju	22	6	7	9	24	28	25
12	Mokpo City	22	4	9	9	19	35	21
13	Yangpyeong FC	22	3	8	11	27	43	17
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	22	1	7	14	22	49	10

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pocheon Citizen FC	Chuncheon FC
Yangpyeong FC	2-0 W	3-3 D
Yeoju	1-0 W	2-1 W
Siheung City AC	2-3 L	2-3 L
Mokpo City	2-0 W	1-0 W
Daejeon Korail	1-1 D	3-3 D
Dangjin Citizen FC	1-1 D	4-3 W
Gyeongju HNP	3-1 W	2-2 D
Gangneung City	3-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Pocheon Citizen FC (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pocheon Citizen FC

DWWDDWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	11	3	L
13/09	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
06/09	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
30/08	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	0-3	2-3	6	5	L
22/08	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
25/07	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
11/07	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
28/06	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	2-0	3-1	7	6	W
21/06	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
06/06	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-1	14	3	D

Chuncheon FC

DDLDDWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	0-0	2-1	6	3	W
06/09	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	1	2	W
29/08	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	4-3	5	1	W
23/08	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
26/07	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-1	3	7	W
12/07	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
27/06	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	1-0	3-3	2	6	D
20/06	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	2-2	2-3	2	2	L
06/06	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	2-2	3-3	1	6	D
30/05	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	0-1	2-2	3	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pocheon Citizen FC vs Chuncheon FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pocheon Citizen FC win (58%). Probabilities: Pocheon Citizen FC 58%, draw 24%, Chuncheon FC 18%.

How many goals are expected in Pocheon Citizen FC vs Chuncheon FC?

The model expects 2.95 goals (Pocheon Citizen FC 1.95 · Chuncheon FC 1), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Pocheon Citizen FC vs Chuncheon FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.