Prediction: Chengdu Rongcheng vs Chongqing Tonglianglong
Expected goals: 2.89 (Chengdu Rongcheng 2.04 · Chongqing Tonglianglong 0.84). The model gives 64% home, 22% draw, 14% away. Over 2.75 goals (50%) and both teams to score (52%). Most likely score: 2-0.
Recent form leaves Chengdu Rongcheng with 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses over 10 games; Chongqing Tonglianglong has piled up 3-3-4 in the same span. In the last 2 head-to-head meetings the record reads 0 wins for Chengdu Rongcheng and 0 for Chongqing Tonglianglong, with 2 draws.
| Chengdu Rongcheng | Draw | Chongqing Tonglianglong | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 22% | 14% |
| Market | 65% | 21% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chengdu Rongcheng (rating 1567 vs 1494).
- Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chengdu Rongcheng | Chongqing Tonglianglong | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.9 | 1.1 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.3 | 0.4 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.7 / 6.9 | 0.9 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.1 | 3.9 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chengdu Rongcheng 0–2–0 Chongqing Tonglianglong
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 China Super League | Chongqing Tonglianglong | 3-3 HT 0-2 | Chengdu Rongcheng |
| 23/06/23 China FA Cup | Chongqing Tonglianglong | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Chengdu Rongcheng |
Standings · China Super League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Rongcheng | 16 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 15 | 40 |
| 2 | Chongqing Tonglianglong | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 21 | 19 | 27 |
| 3 | Dalian Young Boy | 17 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 25 | 31 | 25 |
| 4 | Yunnan Yukun | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 31 | 29 | 24 |
| 5 | Qingdao West Coast | 17 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 22 | 25 | 24 |
| 6 | Beijing Guoan | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 29 | 23 | 21 |
| 7 | Shandong Taishan | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 28 | 21 |
| 8 | Liaoning Ironman | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 29 | 20 |
| 9 | Zhejiang | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 26 | 17 |
| 10 | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 22 | 31 | 17 |
| 11 | Shanghai Shenhua | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 33 | 25 | 16 |
| 12 | Shanghai Port | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 24 | 15 |
| 13 | Henan | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 22 | 15 |
| 14 | Qingdao Hainiu | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 27 | 13 |
| 15 | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 22 | 22 | 8 |
| 16 | Wuhan Three Towns | 17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 34 | 8 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Chengdu Rongcheng | Chongqing Tonglianglong |
|---|---|---|
| Qingdao Hainiu | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Shandong Taishan | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Dalian Young Boy | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Tianjin Jinmen Tigers | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Henan | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Liaoning Ironman | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Shanghai Shenhua | 3-2 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Chengdu Rongcheng (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chengdu Rongcheng
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Qingdao Hainiu China Super League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 27/06 | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng China Super League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 9 | 8 | W |
| 20/06 | Shanghai Zetian China FA Cup |
1-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | Shandong Taishan China Super League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Dalian Young Boy China Super League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 19/05 | Shanghai Port China Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 11 | L |
| 15/05 | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers China Super League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Henan China Super League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 05/05 | Liaoning Ironman China Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 01/05 | Shanghai Shenhua China Super League |
1-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 7 | W |
Chongqing Tonglianglong
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Liaoning Ironman China Super League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 27/06 | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers China Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 20/06 | Ningbo Professional FC China FA Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | Beijing Guoan China Super League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 24/05 | Qingdao Hainiu China Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 20/05 | Yunnan Yukun China Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 16/05 | Shandong Taishan China Super League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Shanghai Shenhua China Super League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 05/05 | Henan China Super League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 01/05 | Dalian Young Boy China Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chengdu Rongcheng vs Chongqing Tonglianglong?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Chengdu Rongcheng win (64%). Probabilities: Chengdu Rongcheng 64%, draw 22%, Chongqing Tonglianglong 14%.
How many goals are expected in Chengdu Rongcheng vs Chongqing Tonglianglong?
The model expects 2.89 goals (Chengdu Rongcheng 2.04 · Chongqing Tonglianglong 0.84), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Rongcheng vs Chongqing Tonglianglong?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.