Football · Argentina Nacional B · 26/09, 21:00
Prediction: Defensores de Belgrano vs Ferro Carril Oeste
Team pages: Defensores de Belgrano · Ferro Carril Oeste
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.07Total
Defensores de Belgrano0.89
Ferro Carril Oeste1.18
1X2
Defensores de Belgrano
Draw
Ferro Carril Oeste
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 66%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Defensores de Belgrano
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Ferro Carril Oeste
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Defensores de Belgrano
1–2–2
Ferro Carril Oeste
(5 last)
- Ferro Carril Oeste2-1Defensores de Belgrano
- Defensores de Belgrano2-2Ferro Carril Oeste
- Defensores de Belgrano0-2Ferro Carril Oeste
- Ferro Carril Oeste1-1Defensores de Belgrano
- Defensores de Belgrano2-0Ferro Carril Oeste
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Defensores de Belgrano 1495 · Ferro Carril Oeste 1539
| Defensores de Belgrano | Draw | Ferro Carril Oeste | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 26% | 32% | 41% |
| Market | 26% | 33% | 41% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.07 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ferro Carril Oeste (rating 1495 vs 1539).
- H2H favours Ferro Carril Oeste: 2-2-1.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Defensores de Belgrano | Ferro Carril Oeste | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 0.8 | 1.2 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.5 | 2.9 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.1 | 4.5 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Defensores de Belgrano 1–2–2 Ferro Carril Oeste
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05/26 Argentina Nacional B | Ferro Carril Oeste | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Defensores de Belgrano |
| 26/04/22 Argentina Nacional B | Defensores de Belgrano | 2-2 HT 2-2 | Ferro Carril Oeste |
| 31/10/21 Argentina Nacional B | Defensores de Belgrano | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Ferro Carril Oeste |
| 04/07/21 Argentina Nacional B | Ferro Carril Oeste | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Defensores de Belgrano |
| 08/12/18 Argentina Nacional B | Defensores de Belgrano | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Ferro Carril Oeste |
Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 30 | 17 | 7 | 6 | 35 | 25 | 58 |
| 2 | Deportivo Moron | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 48 | 29 | 55 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 38 | 26 | 52 |
| 4 | Deportivo Madryn | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 44 | 28 | 49 |
| 5 | Colon | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 38 | 25 | 48 |
| 6 | Almirante Brown | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 23 | 17 | 46 |
| 7 | CA Estudiantes Caseros | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 27 | 25 | 42 |
| 8 | Club Ciudad de Bolivar | 30 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 24 | 27 | 39 |
| 9 | Los Andes | 30 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 22 | 20 | 37 |
| 10 | CA Chaco For Ever | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 27 | 29 | 36 |
| 11 | Defensores de Belgrano | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 23 | 26 | 36 |
| 12 | Racing de Cordoba | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 26 | 36 | 35 |
| 13 | All Boys | 30 | 6 | 14 | 10 | 17 | 26 | 32 |
| 14 | Club Atletico Mitre | 30 | 6 | 14 | 10 | 27 | 37 | 32 |
| 15 | Central Norte | 30 | 6 | 13 | 11 | 19 | 28 | 31 |
| 16 | CA San Miguel | 30 | 6 | 13 | 11 | 24 | 34 | 31 |
| 17 | CA San Telmo | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 34 | 31 |
| 18 | Acassuso | 30 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 21 | 34 | 26 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Defensores de Belgrano | Ferro Carril Oeste |
|---|---|---|
| Los Andes | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Club Ciudad de Bolivar | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Almirante Brown | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Club Atletico Mitre | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| CA Estudiantes Caseros | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| All Boys | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 3 D 3 L | 3 W 3 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Ferro Carril Oeste (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Defensores de Belgrano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Central Norte Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 14/09 | Deportivo Madryn Argentina Nacional B |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 09/09 | Los Andes Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 0 | D |
| 04/09 | Racing de Cordoba Argentina Nacional B |
2-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 29/08 | Club Ciudad de Bolivar Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 22/08 | Almirante Brown Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 15/08 | Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 09/08 | Club Atletico Mitre Argentina Nacional B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 01/08 | CA Estudiantes Caseros Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 26/07 | All Boys Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
Ferro Carril Oeste
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Club Ciudad de Bolivar Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 13/09 | Almirante Brown Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 05/09 | Club Atletico Mitre Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 30/08 | CA Estudiantes Caseros Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 25/08 | All Boys Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 15/08 | CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 09/08 | Los Andes Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 01/08 | Godoy Cruz Argentina Nacional B |
1-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 26/07 | Deportivo Moron Argentina Nacional B |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 18/07 | Colon Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Defensores de Belgrano vs Ferro Carril Oeste?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Ferro Carril Oeste win (41%). Probabilities: Defensores de Belgrano 26%, draw 33%, Ferro Carril Oeste 41%.
How many goals are expected in Defensores de Belgrano vs Ferro Carril Oeste?
The model expects 2.07 goals (Defensores de Belgrano 0.89 · Ferro Carril Oeste 1.18), with a 53% chance of over 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Defensores de Belgrano vs Ferro Carril Oeste?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.