Football · Japan L1 League Women · 20/09, 07:00

Prediction: Vonds Ichihara (W) vs Orca Kamogawa FC (W)

Team pages: Vonds Ichihara (W) · Orca Kamogawa FC (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

Vonds Ichihara (W)0.92

Orca Kamogawa FC (W)1.84

1X2

18% 24% 58%

Vonds Ichihara (W) Draw Orca Kamogawa FC (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Vonds Ichihara (W) 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLDWW

Orca Kamogawa FC (W) 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWLDWWWWD

Head-to-head

Vonds Ichihara (W) 0–1 Orca Kamogawa FC (W) (1 last)

Orca Kamogawa FC (W)4-0Vonds Ichihara (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vonds Ichihara (W) 1435 · Orca Kamogawa FC (W) 1569

	Vonds Ichihara (W)	Draw	Orca Kamogawa FC (W)
Our model	17%	25%	58%
Market	18%	24%	58%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Orca Kamogawa FC (W) (rating 1435 vs 1569).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vonds Ichihara (W)	Orca Kamogawa FC (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2	1.4 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.3	1.3 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.1 / 0	0.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.00

X3.80

21.53

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.90

2 (-1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.75 → 5.00▼	Bet365 5.00
X	4.00 → 3.80▼	Bet365 3.80
2	1.44 → 1.53▲	Bet365 1.53

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
09:14 +54’	5.75	4.00	1.44
14:19 +45’	5.00▼	3.80▼	1.53▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vonds Ichihara (W) 0–0–1 Orca Kamogawa FC (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Japan L1 League Women	Orca Kamogawa FC (W)	4-0 HT 2-0	Vonds Ichihara (W)

Standings · Japan L1 League Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shizuoka SSU Bonita (W)	18	11	3	4	49	13	36
2	Loveledge Nagoya (W)	18	10	5	3	39	18	35
3	Orca Kamogawa FC (W)	17	9	5	3	26	12	32
4	Viamaterras Miyazaki (W)	17	9	5	3	31	19	32
5	Iga FC Kunoichi (W)	17	8	5	4	19	14	29
6	Yokohama FC Seagulls (W)	18	8	3	7	32	27	27
7	Okayama Yunogo Belle (W)	17	7	3	7	23	28	24
8	AS Harima Albion (W)	18	5	5	8	19	24	20
9	Setagaya Sfida (W)	17	5	4	8	25	29	19
10	Ehime FC (W)	17	5	4	8	18	33	19
11	Nittaidai FC (W)	17	3	1	13	15	49	10
12	Vonds Ichihara (W)	17	2	1	14	10	40	7

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vonds Ichihara (W)	Orca Kamogawa FC (W)
Ehime FC (W)	2-0 W	2-1 W
Nittaidai FC (W)	2-1 W	1-0 W
Loveledge Nagoya (W)	0-0 D	1-1 D
Viamaterras Miyazaki (W)	1-3 L	0-2 L
Okayama Yunogo Belle (W)	0-2 L	5-1 W
AS Harima Albion (W)	0-1 L	1-0 W
Shizuoka SSU Bonita (W)	1-5 L	1-1 D
Iga FC Kunoichi (W)	1-2 L	0-0 D
Yokohama FC Seagulls (W)	0-4 L	2-1 W
Setagaya Sfida (W)	0-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 7 L	6 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Orca Kamogawa FC (W) (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vonds Ichihara (W)

LLLLLLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Ehime FC (W) Japan L1 League Women	1-0	2-0	2	0	W
06/09	Nittaidai FC (W) Japan L1 League Women	2-0	2-1	4	1	W
28/06	Loveledge Nagoya (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
21/06	Viamaterras Miyazaki (W) Japan L1 League Women	1-1	1-3	1	0	L
13/06	Okayama Yunogo Belle (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
06/06	AS Harima Albion (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
23/05	Shizuoka SSU Bonita (W) Japan L1 League Women	1-4	1-5	3	1	L
17/05	Iga FC Kunoichi (W) Japan L1 League Women	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
09/05	Yokohama FC Seagulls (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-2	0-4	5	0	L
03/05	Setagaya Sfida (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-1	0-2	3	1	L

Orca Kamogawa FC (W)

DWWLDWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Shizuoka SSU Bonita (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-1	1-1	3	1	D
06/09	Okayama Yunogo Belle (W) Japan L1 League Women	3-1	5-1	4	0	W
27/06	Nittaidai FC (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-0	1-0	10	0	W
20/06	Yokohama FC Seagulls (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-0	2-1	2	0	W
14/06	Ehime FC (W) Japan L1 League Women	1-1	2-1	1	0	W
07/06	Iga FC Kunoichi (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-0	0-0	2	0	D
24/05	Viamaterras Miyazaki (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-1	0-2	0	1	L
16/05	AS Harima Albion (W) Japan L1 League Women	1-0	1-0	2	1	W
10/05	Setagaya Sfida (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-0	1-0	2	0	W
02/05	Loveledge Nagoya (W) Japan L1 League Women	0-1	1-1	1	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vonds Ichihara (W) vs Orca Kamogawa FC (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Orca Kamogawa FC (W) win (58%). Probabilities: Vonds Ichihara (W) 18%, draw 24%, Orca Kamogawa FC (W) 58%.

How many goals are expected in Vonds Ichihara (W) vs Orca Kamogawa FC (W)?

The model expects 2.76 goals (Vonds Ichihara (W) 0.92 · Orca Kamogawa FC (W) 1.84), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Vonds Ichihara (W) vs Orca Kamogawa FC (W)?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.